NHL Betting Guide: Monday 4/17/23
If there's any word of advice I could give a novice when betting the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it is to expect the unexpected.
The 2019 Blue Jackets didn't just defeat a Lightning squad with 128 points (best in the NHL by 21); they swept them. No one is invincible or unbeatable in a sport like hockey, where scoring chances don't necessarily correlate to scores -- even in a seven-game sample.
That's the best opening salvo I could give to my first pick of the playoffs, which should seem wild to many.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins
Panthers +1.5 (-137)
Panthers ML (+184)
The aforementioned Bolts squad -- or any team in NHL history -- can't hold a candle to the 2023 Bruins, who shattered the NHL's all-time record for wins and points in a single season.
Their reward might be facing the most prolific offense in the sport. The Panthers led the NHL in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes this season (3.76) by a decent margin. They battled goaltending and defensive issues for most of the year, but Alex Lyon has -- improbably -- shored them up.
Since March 1st, Lyon has posted more goals saved above expectation (12.45 GSAx) than Boston's Linus Ullmark (7.37), the frontrunner for this year's Vezina, in fewer games.
For the entire season, Boston's expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) hasn't been special. They're fifth in the NHL at a 54.1 xGF%, and Florida, for example, sits at a 53.5 xGF%. Now, that rate with elite goaltending is why Boston has been so special, but oddly enough, Florida seems to match that if Lyon's level of play continues.
Don't be shocked if this series is close -- and scary for Bruins fans.
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers
Under 6.5 (-110)
If you're just tapping back in for some of the greatest postseason action in sports, I wanted to let you know these aren't your same old Edmonton Oilers.
The Oilers have actually added some substance to the sizzle of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. This is a squad that posted the 14th-fewest expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes in the NHL (3.00), which is a stark improvement from their bottom-10 marks in previous seasons.
Plus, rookie Stuart Skinner has been a godsend for Edmonton's elusive goaltending issues. Skinner posted 18.40 GSAx this season (11th-best).
The same could be said about Los Angeles rookie Pheonix Copley (5.78 GSAx) on the other side. When Copley took over, Calvin Petersen and Jonathan Quick had combined for two of the five worst GSAx marks in the sport. The difference is that the Kings tied for the fifth-best xGA per 60 minutes this season (2.79) behind their solid defense.
Edmonton's contests averaged 7.75 total goals per game last postseason. While many will flock to this over, these two clubs have improved significantly on defense from a year ago, leading to some value on this elevated total.
