NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/25/23
The hardest part of betting on NHL series as we begin to decide them is letting go of preconceived predictions to accept new data. The side I'm taking today would doom my projected Western Conference champs, but they haven't played like champs to start the playoffs.
How should we bet Tuesday's trio of games?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes
Over 5.5 (+118)
Looking at some betting splits, I might be going off the cliff with upwards of 80% of others targeting this number, but it just doesn't make sense to this point in the series.
I expected unders all series long, but that's not actually been the case. Three of the four games in this battle have gone over the expected total -- with a total of 5.63 goals per 60 minutes on average.
Plus, when you look at the expected goals scored (xGF) column, there's even more activity. These clubs are underperforming at the aforementioned mark when averaging 6.24 xGF per 60 minutes on average.
It's because Carolina's Antti Raanta has been scalding hot, posting 2.02 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in this series. The problem is that likely won't stick; he posted just 5.88 GSAx in 27 games this season. On the other side, New York's Ilya Sorokin (1.12 GSAx) has been well off his league-best pace from the regular season.
It's possible Sorokin's greatness finally shines in Game 5, but I'll take the long number on these offenses continuing to put quality scoring chances on the board.
Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars
Wild ML (+120)
The Wild have outplayed the Stars in this series, so it's hard not to take them on equal rest despite being the road club here.
In games where Filip Gustavsson and Jake Oettinger have both started, Minnesota has posted 2.76 xGF per 60 minutes to Dallas' 2.49. The Stars' 7-3 win in Game 2 came with Marc-Andre Fleury in goal, which appears to be a mistake the Wild won't make again.
Gustavsson has widened that gap when he's been the guy. In just three games, he's posted 3.18 GSAx. With an extra game in hand for the cumulative stat, Oettinger has tallied just 0.20 GSAx.
Both of these teams seem like they'll continue to be down a top-six forward for this one. Dallas is missing Joe Pavelski due to a concussion, and Minnesota has Joel Eriksson Ek listed out with a lower-body issue.
This series should continue to swing back and forth to the point where I wouldn't be surprised to back Dallas on the road in Game 6. This one seems like an all-timer.
