NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/26/23

There are only two games on Wednesday, but one of them might be my second-favorite betting spot of the Stanley Cup Playoffs so far.

Which game has it?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins

Panthers +1.5 (-118)
Panthers ML (+202)

Though Boston has dreams of grandeur about the Bruins, this is a playoff series that shouldn't be over in five.

The Bruins have tallied 3.99 expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes thus far in this series, but Florida has been right with them most of the way, recording a mark of 3.77. That's not your run-of-the-mill blowout by a top seed.

In fact, Colorado has outperformed Seattle (+0.66 xGF per 60) in a more dominant fashion, and the Avs find themselves in a tied series. Hockey doesn't always reward the best team in seven games.

The difference has been in goal. Projected Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark is fifth in the playoffs in goals saved above expectation (3.12 GSAx), and neither Sergei Bobrovsky (-0.05 GSAx) nor Alex Lyon (-0.73) has been able to match that level of play -- to this point.

Things are too tight in this series between the creases to back the Bruins at an insane price. numberFire's model expects Florida to cover this puckline 64.0% of the time, and with urgency in the Panthers' corner, I'll sprinkle the moneyline, too.