NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/3/23

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 May 3rd, 2023

We're going to test these teams' level of competition today.

In terms of expected goals and goaltending from the first round, today's sides are fairly obvious. It's the best we can do until we get data from these series starting tomorrow.

Who does the data favor?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes

Devils ML (+100)

Both underdogs won yesterday. They might again today.

New Jersey is no underdog when examining the data from Round 1. Against a Rangers that got its fair share of title praise, the Devils led the first round in expected-goals-for rate (56.7 xGF%). They fell behind 2-0 in the series due to a really ugly start from Vitek Vanecek, but Akira Schmid has completely turned the tide.

In just five games, Schmid leads the postseason in goals saved above expectation (5.71 GSAx). That's right, the Devils are currently throwing out the best-performing skaters with the best-performing goalie. Yikes.

Of course, Carolina led the NHL in xGF% (57.5%), and Frederik Andersen stopped all but one shot in his return to the crease in Game 6. They're a worthy opponent here receiving a bump for being at home, but until we have more data, I'm not sure I could pick against New Jersey's current form.

Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights

Golden Knights ML (-105)

Only two starting goalies with a negative GSAx mark remain in the playoffs. One (Ilya Samsonov) lost last night. Will Stuart Skinner join him?

Being Edmonton's netminder allows for quite a bit of a margin for error when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can go grab one at seemingly any moment, but -2.35 GSAx the rest of the way probably won't result in a lifted Stanley Cup.

These two clubs were pretty even in the first round against Los Angeles and Winnipeg, two teams who were fairly close in points and held nearly identical goal differentials. Edmonton posted a 53.7 xGF% in the first round, and Vegas posted a 53.6 xGF%.

In that event, Vegas' Laurent Brossoit (1.24 GSAx) has been in much better form during the playoffs so far, and the Golden Knights have a stellar home-ice advantage they'll get to use in Game 1. They went 25-15 at home this year.

As an underdog, we can back that profile, too.