NHL

NHL Betting Guide: Monday 5/8/23

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 May 8th, 2023
Stuart Skinner turned in his best effort of the playoffs thus far in Vegas on Saturday. How should we bet Game 3 between the Golden Knights and Oilers tonight?

Like Friday, this one-game slate seems pretty inefficient. However, an interesting goaltending trend might -- might -- be worth a dart tonight.

I'll wait for official starting netminders, but this isn't the day to deploy a full unit. Here's the lean for tonight's game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers

Under 6.5 (+112) - Lean

numberFire's model feels great about this line. It thinks the under hits 60.7% of the time.

I'm not as certain, but there's definitely a case. These two teams have totaled 6.85 expected goals per 60 minutes thus far, but that doesn't automatically write off the under in this spot. That number with poor goaltending would be a shootout, but that wasn't what we saw in Game 2.

Edmonton's Stuart Skinner posted 1.75 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in that one, stopping 30 of 31 shots from the Golden Knights. The problem? At -2.50 GSAx for the postseason (fourth-worst in the NHL), I don't know if we can routinely expect that sort of effort.

Still, I will fire a half-unit at this under if Adin Hill gets the nod for Vegas. Hill posted 0.23 GSAx in relief duty on Saturday, and personally, it was only a matter of time before he replaced Laurent Brossoit (-0.93 GSAx in the postseason) if healthy.

With Brossoit, I'd certainly rather play this under than the hefty juice on an elevated postseason total, but I'd feel much better if Vegas made the switch.