NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 5/11/23
You're going to get deja vu reading today's betting guide if you read Tuesday's.
Though the picks are the same, some of the context and lines have changed. Let's dive in, and ultimately, you'll want to make the choice for yourself.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Hurricanes ML (-130)
Though the Devils were one of the best teams in the league this year and still lurk dangerously, they've been absolutely crushed in this series.
It's hard to project a turnaround when nothing is working in their favor, expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes in this series favor Carolina, 3.58 to 2.63. The +12 goal differential is there for the public to see, but they're getting mopped in the game within the game, too.
However, the most disheartening element is that Akira Schmid, to this point, has come back to Earth. Schmid saved them in the first round, but he's posted -1.83 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in this series and was benched in favor of Vitek Vanecek in Games 3 and 4. Vanecek has done far worse; his -5.08 GSAx this round is the worst mark of any goalie.
I expect they'll turn back to Schmid tonight, but Carolina's Frederik Andersen (1.87 GSAx) has dominated both, and they've been thoroughly outskated. It's hard not to expect this series to end tonight.
Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars
Stars -1.5 (+126) - Lean
Over 5.5 (-134)
Dallas' skaters stepped up on Tuesday to even this series, but that contest hardly quelled my concerns about their goaltender, Jake Oettinger.
Oettinger (-5.03 GSAx) leads only the embattled Vanecek in GSAx this series, but he still posted -0.33 in Game 4 as the Kraken crawled back to a manageable deficit before losing 6-3. As mentioned on Tuesday, he was one of the best netminders in the regular season across the league, so I expected him to turn it around. That didn't happen.
However, I also expected his opposing netminder to fall to that same poor level before long, and he did. Philipp Grubauer flopped with -2.44 GSAx in that one, but Seattle is stuck with him. Their lone alternative would be Martin Jones (-10.61 GSAx in the regular season), which sounds like a disastrous plan in a postseason environment.
The Stars won the xGF per 60 battle, 3.45 to 2.76, on Tuesday. That's a combined total of 6.21 xGF with poor goaltending, firmly bringing this over into play at a manageable price. I still lean toward Oettinger turning things around soon, and that would propel Dallas to control this series. They'd likely cover the puckline if it happened tonight.
