Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 25
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Watford vs Brighton
Brighton to win +110
Watford are currently in the relegation zone at 4W-3D-15L, and they will look to pick up some points at home against ninth-place Brighton.
Brighton are 6-12-4 on the season, and they are in decent form, going 2-4-0 in their last six matches.
Strangely enough, Watford have been a better team away from home this season, as they are just 2-1-8 in home games with a league-worst -14 goal differential in the split. Brighton are a good away team at 3-7-1 with a +1 goal difference, so being at home doesn't seem like it will benefit Watford too much.
Brighton are the better team overall -- 9th in expected goal differential (xGD), per FBRef, compared to Watford's rank of 18th -- and they are in good form. Brighton should expect to get three points from this match.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win +155
Newcastle won their last two games and are currently out of the relegation zone, but overall, they are still having a poor season.
The Magpies are 3-9-10 for the campaign and are 19th in xGD, although they did improve their squad in the January transfer window, with that new-look team pasting Everton last time out.
Villa are 8-3-11 on the year, and they are in good form, going 1-2-0 in their last three fixtures. Villa are 4-0-1 against the current bottom-five teams in the league, including a 2-0 victory against Newcastle earlier this season.
The Villans won't have the home-field edge, but I still like them to take three points in this matchup.
Leicester City vs West Ham
West Ham to win +140
West Ham are fighting for a top-four spot and a place in next season's Champions League, as they are currently in fourth with 40 points from 24 matches. The Hammers have an xGD of +4.2, good enough for fifth-best in the league, indicating that their strong season is no fluke.
Leicester are lagging behind West Ham in the table, totaling only 26 points from 21 matches while recording an xGD of -5.2. It's been a down year for the Foxes after consistently pushing for the top four in recent campaigns.
Leicester are performing only slightly better at home with an xGD of -2.4 in home matches. The Hammers have a -1.3 xGD in away matches, so even when factoring in that this match is at the King Power Stadium, West Ham deserves the edge.
