Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 25
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Everton vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win +190
Everton have finally been playing better recently, going 2W-0D-1L in their last three games, including a shocking win over first-place Arsenal on February 4th. However, Everton’s overall season has been alarming, and they are 5-6-12 overall with a -13.3 expected goal differential (xGD), per FBRef, with that xGD ranking next to last.
Aston Villa’s recent form is worse than Everton’s, as they have lost each of their last three games. But overall, they are having a much better season than the Toffees. Villa are seven points ahead of Everton, and their xGD, while still unimpressive, is superior at -8.7.
Everton are in better form but Villa have proven to be the better team over the course of the season. Villa should be able to win this game, even away from home.
Leeds vs. Southampton
Southampton to win +280
Draw +250
This game will be a key one in the relegation race, as Leeds currently sit in 19th place with Southampton in last. Both teams are doing much better in xGD -- Southampton rank 12th and Leeds 11th -- so both teams have aspirations of moving above the relegation zone before the close of the season.
Leeds are 0-4-6 in their last 10 games and are 4-7-12 overall for just a 17.4% win rate. Theoretically, Southampton should provide a winnable matchup for Leeds, but xGD indicates the Saints are nowhere near as bad as their place in the standings indicates. The Saints are also strangely better away from home this season, getting 12 points from 12 away matches, compared to just 6 points in 11 home matches.
This is an evenly-matched game, and Southampton are a better team on the road, so don't be overly concerned about the home-field advantage aspect. This game is a toss-up, and getting Southampton to draw or win at plus odds is a good gamble.
Leicester vs. Arsenal
Arsenal to win -145
Arsenal are in the thick of a heated title race, and every game is close to a must-win for them as they look to hold off Manchester City. The Gunners will certainly play for all three points on Saturday and will be extremely aggressive if the game is tied late, which obviously bodes well for their moneyline chances.
Arsenal are 9-1-2 away from home this season, giving them the best away record in the league, seven points ahead of second-best Manchester City.
The Gunners have been excellent all campaign, especially away from home, and they face a mediocre Leicester team that is in 14th place with an unimpressive 3-3-5 home record. By xGD, the Foxes are just 16th in the league.
The Gunners are looking to prove themselves as the best team in the EPL, and they will be aggressive in hunting for the full three points to boost their title chances over Manchester City.
