SOCCER

Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 27

Tom Sokol Mar 10th, 2023
Leeds are at home against an in-form Brighton squad. Which side should you bet on, and which other matches offer betting value?

Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.

Leeds vs. Brighton

Brighton to win -105

Brighton are having a quality season at 11W-5D-7L -- good enough for eighth place with games in hand on the teams ahead of them. Fourth0place Tottenham are 8 points clear of Brighton, but with three games in hand, Brighton still have a chance at a top-four finish.

Their opponent, Leeds, currently sits in 17th place, just ahead of the relegation zone on goal difference. Leeds have lost three out of their last four, including a defeat against 18th-placed Everton, with their only EPL win since November 5th coming against 19th-place Southampton.

Leeds are playing like a relegation candidate, and Brighton are a very good team, one that should expect to take all three points from this matchup.

Everton vs. Brentford

Brentford to win +175
Brentford Tie No Bet -108
Draw +210

Brentford are a surprisingly good team this season at 9-11-4, and their +4.3 xGD shows that their performance is not a fluke. They are currently in ninth with a chance to move up the table with some good performances late in the season, as the standings are very tight from fourth to ninth.

On the flip side, Everton’s season is on life support, and they are currently in the relegation zone, notching only 22 points in 26 matches. Not only that, but they’ve played an additional game compared to teams placed 14th to 20th, so they are in danger of falling even deeper into the relegation zone.

Brentford to win straight-up is a reasonable bet. But given that Brentford have lost just four games the entire league season, you can also take Brentford tie no bet or bet on a draw.

West Ham vs. Aston Villa

Draw +230
Aston Villa to win +240

Aston Villa are having a better season than West Ham, and it’s not particularly close.

The Hammers trail Villa by 11 points in the table and are fighting off relegation, while Villa are comfortably in the middle of the table in 11th place. According to FBRef, West Ham does have a better expected goal difference than Villa -- +1.4, compared to -7.4 -- but the actual results can't be completely ignored, and the gap between the two sides in terms of points is sizable.

Villa are also starting to play better recently, with wins over Everton and Crystal Palace in their last two matches. The Hammers, meanwhile, are coming off a 4-0 loss to Brighton.

Perhaps West Ham have been unlucky this season but not to the point where it makes up for an 11-point deficit in the table. Villa should be able to at least get a draw from this game, if not an outright victory.