Betting Guide for UFC 263
The UFC 263 card has two title fights to end the night, so we shouldn't be lacking excitement on Saturday.
However, the main card features some heavy favorites, and each of the five fights have a fighter listed at -230 or heavier. That makes betting the card a little tricky unless we're digging into finishing props, but don't worry. We've got some options.
Which fights and props stand out the most on the card, according to the offerings at UFC odds?
Israel Adesanya (-280) vs. Marvin Vettori (+184)
Israel Adesanya (20-1-0) has a lone blemish on his professional record by way of a unanimous decision loss to Jan Blachowicz back in March in an attempt to win the light heavyweight title. He'll have to settle for a third straight middleweight title defense opportunity on Saturday against Marvin Vettori (17-3-1).
Vettori has a five-fight win streak in the UFC, though just one of those were not unanimous decision wins.
This fight is also a rematch. Adesanya defeated Vettori by split decision back in April of 2018. Despite the split decision result (with 2 of 3 judges ruling for Adesanya), 15 of 17 media scores awarded a 29-28 win to Adesanya.
My model is giving Adesanya a 67.0% chance to pick up the title defense, which isn't quite where we need him for positive expected value, but the public picks at Tapology are heavily anticipating Adesanya to win (80%).
The public also anticipates a 48.0% chance for Adesanya to win by KO/TKO, giving value on that very method of victory prop, which is listed at +170 on FanDuel Sportsbook (suggesting just a 37.0% probability). While I'm fine with Adesanya outright at -230, this is the most enticing finishing prop.
Deiveson Figueiredo (-230) vs. Brandon Moreno (+184)
Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1-1) will be defending the flyweight title against Brandon Moreno (18-5-2) after these two fought to a majority draw back in December. Figueiredo was deducted a point due to a groin strike in that fight, explaining the draw.
Figueiredo narrowly won the significant strike battle 137 to 132 and landed 57% of his attempts (compared to 53% for Moreno). Moreno did control the Octagon for 3:19, compared to 0:55 for Figueiredo.
Overall, my betting model sees Figueiredo as 65.3% likely to get the win here, and the public picks at Tapology are even higher: 76%.
Notably, the public picks also are predicting a 47.8% likelihood to go to decision, which makes the fight to end by points at +105 a solid value bet.
Drew Dober (-150) vs. Brad Riddell (+122)
Drew Dober (23-10-0) is getting some love in my betting model against Brad Riddell (9-1-0).
Dober is coming off of a third-round submission loss to Islam Makhachev back in March while Riddell has won six straight professional bouts (and all three in the UFC).
Riddell has gone the distance in all three UFC fights thus far, while Dober hasn't gone to decision in any of his past five fights (during which he has a 3-2-0 record). The three wins were knockouts, and the two losses were submissions. Riddell has no submission victories but does have five knockouts.
Though the value for Dober outright at -150 is good enough, the public picks at Tapology are anticipating a knockout win for Dober at a 24.6% clip. You can bet him to win by KO/TKO at +460, which suggests he's only 17.9% likely to do just that. If the consensus is correct, then we've got our finishing prop to target.
