Betting Guide for UFC 272
The authentic bad blood between former Miami teammates has created such anticipation for years that it headlines this weekend's pay-per-view card in lieu of a title bout.
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal takes place Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Where are the sharpest places to wager on the card using UFC odds?
Umar Nurmagomedov and Kennedy Nzechuwku to Both Win (-109; 1.25 Units)
The magic of the two-leg parlays took one of the worst decisions in UFC history to squash last week. We'll go back to the well this week.
Umar Nurmagomedov (-750) is not a hard place to arrive. He's the undefeated bantamweight prospect who is training at the foot of cousin and former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Khabib hasn't lost a fight in which he was one of the cornermen since his retirement in November 2020, so apply that knowledge to bets on or against Tagir Ulanbekov (-245), as well.
The difference between Umar and Ulanbekov? One of them actually was dominant in his UFC debut, and that was the former. Nurmagomedov landed five takedowns in 8:39 of fight time before securing a second-round win over Sergey Morozov. Morozov, though, is an excellent wrestler. Brian Kelleher? Not as much. He has just a 60% takedown defense overall, and he was rag-dolled by Ricky Simon for six takedowns in 2021.
While he is the safest pick on the card, Kennedy Nzechukwu (-144) is far from safe. After all, he was knocked out by Da-Un Jung in his last fight. Still, Nzechukwu may benefit from regression by his opponent, Nick Negumereanu.
Negumereanu has a card-worst -2.75 striking success rate and a laughably-low 29% striking defense. He's on a two-fight win streak after a flimsy decision against Aleksa Camur and a knockout over the one light heavyweight whom he may actually be more efficient than, Ike Villanueva.
With five inches of reach, Nzechuwku's -0.18 striking success rate might as well be that of prime Conor McGregor. Given that Kennedy also has a pace advantage (4.86 significant strikes landed per minute), he should tattoo Negumereanu to the tune of an early finish or a comfortable decision.
Kevin Holland to Win by KO/TKO or Submission (-125; 1.0 Units)
One of the popular upset picks of the weekend is Alex Oliveira over Kevin Holland (-325). Those touting such may want to check the weight class.
This is Holland's welterweight debut (170 pounds) after spending his entire career at middleweight (185). Holland's 50% takedown defense was a noted issue at middleweight, but even with those woes, consider his competition. Top-10 middleweights Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori were the ones scoring 16-plus minutes in control time against "Big Mouth."
Holland still has absurd power behind his +1.33 striking success rate. He knocked out Joaquin Buckley after toying with him for two rounds, and he finished Jacare Souza with punches from his own back. Holland defended four of five takedowns from Kyle Daukaus in his last fight at middleweight, so his takedown defense against a good wrestler there was holding strong before this shift downward.
Oliveira's not exactly a top-shelf candidate to test Holland's takedown defense, either. "Cowboy" has secured multiple takedowns just once in his last eight fights. At 34 years old, explosive wrestling acts are always first to go.
Given that Oliveira's striking defense has slipped to 47% on the heels of this three-fight losing streak, he's in an even worse place analytically than Jacare was when he faced Holland -- and Oliveira is 15 pounds lighter.
Souza was finished in the first round. I'd expect "Cowboy" to, unfortunately, suffer the same fate at some point.
Dart Throw of the Week: Sergey Spivak to Win by Submission in Round 1 or 2 (+440; 0.50 Units)
Before Tai "Bam Bam" Tuivasa surged to the top five of UFC's heavyweight rankings, Sergey Spivak (-205) nearly ended his UFC career.
Spivak took Tuivasa down six times, controlled him for over four minutes, and finished him via second-round submission. Though Spivak was finished by a more well-rounded heavyweight (Tom Aspinall) his last time out, there's reason to believe he should control Greg Hardy on Saturday.
Hardy doesn't even carry the power Tai Tuivasa does. Tuivasa has 7 knockdowns in 11 career fights. Hardy has just one in nine official UFC appearances. Even so, Spivak navigated that power responsibly behind his 55% striking defense.
The formula to backing Spivak at this exact bet was a precise one. All six of Greg Hardy's fights that didn't go to a decision never saw the third round. With Hardy's asthma issues, he can tire quickly when facing adversity. Conversely, all four of Spivak's fights that didn't go to a decision were stopped before the third.
With this fight holding a 75.0% implied probability to not go all 15 minutes, this price to back Spivak by his most likely outcome seems like a formulaic bet to capture either a quick takeover or the eventual wilting of "The Prince of War."
