Betting Guide for UFC 276
Two title fights will cap a star-studded card in Vegas that should produce some fireworks a couple of days before the Fourth of July.
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier will take place Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Which MMA bets stand out on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Maycee Barber and Jim Miller to Both Win (-105; 1.0 Units)
I have two bits of bad news about the two-legger. First, last week's controversial decision for Mateusz Gamrot dropped it 11-6 in 2022. Second, this week's board ain't great.
Still, I think we'll just drop the volume to one unit and target another straight bet instead. Both Maycee Barber (-290) and Jim Miller (-220) sit in fantastic spots.
Barber was aptly nicknamed "The Future" before tearing her ACL in 2020. She hasn't gotten back to that same level of domination since with four straight decisions, but she's still performed well to amass a 2-1 record. She's got a +1.76 striking success rate, and she's added 1.32 takedowns per 15 minutes when appropriate.
She draws Jessica Eye here, and Eye has been the desired fight target at 125 pounds for a while now. She's ranked, but with 11 decisions in 15 pro wins, she's not overly dangerous. For a point fighter, Eye also has a -0.23 striking success rate and averages just 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. Her profile is a bit of an eyesore...pun intended.
As for Miller, he's still charging towards UFC 300 as he wants. He's now turned away UFC debutants Erick Gonzalez and Nikolas Motta in back-to-back fights, and he's stepping in on short notice here to give fellow pioneer Donald Cerrone a scrap. Miller is still fighting well into his 30s, amassing a 59% striking defense to keep him safe -- and we know he can grapple (1.80 submission attempts per 15).
"Cowboy" Cerrone is on a six-fight winless skid, and he has a -2.38 striking success rate during it. Cerrone has been finished in the first round in four of his last six bouts, and he's unfortunately made two weight cuts in the previous 60 days already because of two cancellations against Joe Lauzon. Lauzon is a poor man's version of Miller as a durable submission ace, and I picked Lauzon, as well.
These two have pretty benign foes this weekend, and they're comfortable favorites to win in bouts that might not have a ton of action.
Sean O'Malley and Pedro Munhoz to Go the Distance (+102; 1.0 Unit)
Don't let anyone fool you. This is a massive step up in competition for Sean O'Malley (-340).
O'Malley's opponents in his previous UFC victories have a 1-8 record after their bout with him. Outside of the loss to Chito Vera, "Sugar" Sean has been crushing cans.
Don't get me wrong -- he's an otherworldly striker who can hang with ranked foes. He lands 8.62 significant strikes per minute on 62% accuracy and pairs that with a 66% defense. His +4.74 striking success rate is the gold standard of the division, and he'll have seven inches of reach on Pedro Munhoz (+250).
He's still in a great spot to win this matchup, but Munhoz is durable and holds a solid 58% striking defense. He's never been knocked out or submitted in 17 UFC appearances. O'Malley was unable to dispense of Kris Moutinho and Thomas Almeida until the third round, so Munhoz has a great shot to survive a few more minutes.
O'Malley's six-fight knockout streak -- either for or against -- is pushing this line to plus money. It absolutely shouldn't be given the gauntlet Munhoz has survived leading into this one.
Sean Strickland to Win (-102; 1.0 Unit)
If you're going to bet UFC, tuning in weekly is such an advantage.
Sean Strickland (-102) faces Alex Pereira this weekend, and Pereira has the buzz around him as a man who has defeated division champion Israel Adesanya multiple times in kickboxing. Strickland is a worse matchup for Pereira than Adesanya is in MMA since Izzy actively advertises he won't use wrestling and grappling.
Strickland has already grappled at a high level in this division. He took Uriah Hall down four times and controlled him for north of seven minutes last July. If you don't remember that card, it's because it was a tiny one that didn't even have the biggest MMA fight of the weekend.
Since Sean can grapple, he should dominate Pereira in that phase of MMA. Pereira was controlled for more than four minutes by Andreas Michailidis in his debut, and striker Bruno "Blindado" Silva landed a pair of takedowns on him, as well.
Against better competition, Strickland has amassed a +1.59 striking success rate. Pereira's is +2.81, so he might have an edge on the feet, but this fight shouldn't be close on the mat.
Sean Strickland by Submission (+1100) is live here, too, and if you don't believe me, believe Strickland's teammate who gave away the gameplan earlier this week.
Dart Throw of the Week: Gabe Green by Submission (+1000; 0.25 Units)
Just because two prospects have similar stories doesn't make them equally capable.
Ian Garry is an undefeated MMA fighter from Ireland who was showcased in the same promotions as UFC legend Conor McGregor. McGregor's explosion into UFC featured seven straight wins and six by knockout. Unfortunately, Garry hasn't had that same success.
Garry's first two opponents are 1-6 in UFC overall, and "The Future" just escaped Darian Weeks with a decision win. Weeks controlled him for 2:52 in an effort that covered the spread. While Garry still won the fight, it wasn't the blitzing many expected from a -500 favorite.
Gabe Green (+144) has already dispensed multi-time UFC winner Phil Rowe, so Garry's strength of schedule has gotten difficult in a hurry. Oddsmakers really aren't giving the hotshot Irish prospect a ton of love, listing him as just a -166 favorite.
Given Garry's struggles against Weeks, the well-rounded veteran might have a sizable advantage on the mat in this one. Green landed two takedowns and a submission attempt on lanky wrestler Rowe, so far crazier things have happened.
I'm not getting much juice on Green as a 'dog, and Garry is still a fine striker (+1.50 striking success rate), so I'd rather make this small play on Green's most likely area of strength.
