UFC Jacksonville: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action each and every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. No matter your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout here.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Jacksonville: Emmett vs. Topuria, taking place at the Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL on Saturday.

Cody Brundage vs. Sedriques Dumas

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Sedriques Dumas' UFC debut didn't go nearly as planned.

Dumas was a consensus -200 or so favorite entering a bout with Josh Fremd in Las Vegas earlier this year. Fremd easily controlled Dumas for 63.6% of their fight before a second-round submission. Fremd's teammate, Cody Brundage, is hopping in here on short notice looking to do the same.

That was Fremd's first UFC win, but Brundage has significantly more experience in this division. He's beaten UFC winners Tresean Gore (who beat Fremd) and Dalcha Lungiambula before recent setbacks to Rodolfo Vieira and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Cody definitely isn't losing to bums; his four UFC losses have 15 combined wins themselves.

Dumas hasn't defended a single takedown in two UFC-affiliated appearances, and Brundage averages 2.60 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 46% accuracy. While I will acknowledge the reach disparity that reflects Dumas' mouthwatering physical tools for this division, he hasn't actually put them to use yet.

Sedriques hasn't recorded a knockdown, and his striking defense (46%) is worse than Brundage's (49%). His competition level outside of UFC is also shockingly poor. The knockout danger for Brundage to worry about might be far more fiction than fact at this stage.

Betting Verdict: I tapped in on Brundage's moneyline earlier in the week at -150 but am still showing value up to -210 on him. You really have to work to give Dumas' peripherals a legitimate path to compete in this fight beyond a surprise knockout.

DFS Verdict: Brundage ($19) is a high-risk, high-reward option with this fight -172 to see under 1.5 rounds of action. If he's indeed your projected victor, that's an MVP candidate.

Jamall Emmers vs. Jack Jenkins

Featherweight (145 pounds)

As a long-time fan of Jamall Emmers, I'm worried about him in this particular spot.

Returning from a knee injury, Emmers' return left a lot to be desired, for me, despite winning as the underdog against debutant Khusein Askhabov. He landed just 62 significant strikes with notably low striking accuracy (43%) compared to his overall mark of 50%.

He also hasn't excelled in this type of matchup. He's 0-2 facing fighters averaging north of 1.50 takedowns landed per 15, and both losses were by an early stoppage. Pat Sabatini quickly submitted him with a heel hook, leading to the knee injury. Emmers could have very little skill in that area.

Jack Jenkins averages 4.07 takedowns per 15 with 72% accuracy through his two UFC-affiliated bouts, which signals an upset alert above all else. Analytically, he also throws chopping low kicks that seem problematic for the lanky Emmers just one fight removed from the aforementioned ACL issue.

Jenkins hasn't fought a high level of competition yet, but he's clearly passed with flying colors, per a +2.27 SSR. He's also never been knocked out. This line seems a bit too wide when either could win out in this striker-versus-grappler battle.

Betting Verdict: I fired on Jenkins at +130 and got bit by the line movement. This is the best number yet, so keep waiting. I'm right in line with the -192 odds to go over 2.5 rounds; Jenkins hasn't offered a submission attempt to this point.

DFS Verdict: Emmers' reduced volume and Jenkins' noted durability make him a tough sell at a $19 salary, which is why I'll turn to Jenkins ($10) in that realm, too.

Trevor Peek vs. Jose "Chepe" Mariscal

Lightweight (155 pounds)

I always get told I am too beholden to stats in UFC handicapping, but I'm throwing Trevor Peek's largely out the window.

Peek's first-round demolition of Erick Gonzalez (0-3 UFC) means very little for his UFC future. In fact, I'm more concerned that through Peek's first two UFC-affiliated appearances, he's amassed a 42% striking defense and 42% takedown defense.

The red flags of skill are starting to add up when he's 8-0 with all wins by knockouts. Has he trounced bad competition? If so, Chepe Mariscal should let us know.

He's actually got the experience advantage here when he's fought six current UFC fighters to Peek's zero, including a win over grappling ace Pat Sabatini regionally. All of his opponents are featherweights, so he'll be at a disadvantage up in weight here, but his competition level is actually significantly higher.

This line has tightened to a pick 'em throughout the week as we've gotten a close look at these two resumés.

Betting Verdict: My favorite angle of this volatile fight with bad samples is Mariscal's submission prop (+700). Peek's record or footage shows zero discernible grappling, so I don't know why that's so high in a pick 'em.

DFS Verdict: With nearly identical salaries in a fight -182 to see an early stoppage, pick your horse on FanDuel and hope you're right. I prefer Mariscal's skillset and background.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Josh Van

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Josh Van got an express trip off a future Contender Series appearance to earn a promotion right away.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov was bumped off last week's card after his opponent withdrew, and UFC has tabbed Van to fight the veteran. Zhumagulov's 1-5 UFC record is unlucky when he's outstruck two of the "losses", but his lack of athletic danger is encapsulated in a -0.50 SSR and paltry 19% takedown accuracy. He just can't put forth dangerous offense.

Van is the opposite. He's never seen the judges' scorecards as a pro with his only loss via submission in 2021. The 21-year-old is Fury FC's reigning flyweight champion and turns in the #11 ranking of top unaffiliated flyweights to join UFC here.

Zhumagulov is probably due for a win, but Van is a lethal opponent despite the short-notice nature of this fight. There's no doubt that the UFC veteran has the experience advantage here, but Van's athletic ceiling and finishing record are ingredients in most short-notice upsets.

This fight is -156 to go the distance despite Van's record. Something has to give.

Betting Verdict: As a result of Van's style, the under 2.5 round prop (+142) is my way to access this fight. If Van is overmatched, Zhumagulov's only UFC win came via finish, and we know Josh's own record.

DFS Verdict: It's dangerous to fade the favorite in a fight I'm expecting to see an early finish, but I was blown away by Van's record and regional footage this week. He's the more dynamic athlete for what he lacks in experience.

Tabatha Ricci vs. Gillian Robertson

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

It's unreal that size is still so underrated as part of UFC handicapping.

Anything you hear about what Gillian Robertson can't do is from when she fought at 125 pounds. In her 115-pound debut, Robertson controlled 68.3% of the fight against Piera Rodriguez. She also landed 66% of her significant strike attempts and defended 67% of Piera's. It was total domination.

Rodriguez also has a win over a better grappler currently (Sam Hughes) than any strawweight on Tabatha Ricci's resumé. Ricci is an Instagram darling who has won the hearts and minds of several, but submitting 40-year-old Jessica Penne doesn't mean anything for beating flyweight's divisional record-holder for wins by finish.

Because Robertson will tower over Ricci in terms of both height and reach, I'm projecting the best striking effort of her career. After all, Ricci was outlanded by 32 significant strikes at distance by Maria Oliveira (1-4 UFC).

"The Savage" Robertson has fought flyweight title contenders like Taila Santos. In addition to the striking expectations, I'm also expecting she's the stronger, better ground fighter overall. She's my second-favorite underdog on the card.

Betting Verdict: As mentioned on Covering the Spread, I'm showing value on Robertson up to -150, and that climbs much higher using just her strawweight sample. With Ricci not having been finished in this division, I'm in line with the -180 odds this goes the distance, though.

DFS Verdict: On a tough week for underdogs, the $1 discount with Robertson helps. These are both ground-oriented fighters, so the tangible upside of both is similar and limited.

Mateusz Rebecki vs. Loik Radzhabov

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Because of the volatility of their one-fight samples, this was the toughest card to project on the card for me.

Mateusz Rebecki dominated Nick Fiore, but Fiore is now cut with the worst two-fight sample in terms of striking differential (-163) in UFC this year. Loik Radzhabov took Esteban Ribovics down 11 times to earn a win, but that was Ribovics' debut, and he's a one-dimensional striker.

As SSRs would indicate, Rebecki likely has the edge striking here. Ribovics dropped Radzhabov and had a +26 striking differential against him. Loik's 48% striking defense was also poor.

I just can't make that same definitive claim about the grappling in this one. Rebecki has a 62% takedown accuracy of his own -- and six pro wins via submission as a black belt. He'll be a much stronger test for Radzhabov there than Ribovics was.

Radzhabov has never been professionally finished, and Rebecki's only loss as a pro was a fluke knockout back in 2014. I expect these two to grind for a full 15 minutes in a tight affair.

Betting Verdict: I've got no tangible betting angles here. I'm right in line with Rebecki as a -160 favorite on the back of his striking and over 2.5 rounds (-192). These samples aren't great, anyway.

DFS Verdict: My preferred side, Rebecki ($16), will probably be popular for perceived win equity at the salary, but this might be an environment to avoid in DFS in a matchup of grapplers.

Randy Brown vs. Wellington Turman

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Wellington Turman will make one last adjustment to try and save his UFC career -- become a size bully.

Turman's stead at middleweight was dreadful. His three UFC wins have come over foes a combined 0-8-1 against all others since the 2020 COVID break. They've all been cut from UFC. He was equally poor as a striker (-0.87 SSR) as he was a defensive wrestler (50% takedown defense). His 21% takedown accuracy wasn't great, either.

The problem with this idea? Randy Brown isn't some welterweight to be bullied by size. He's huge for this division and will still hold massive height and reach advantages over Turman. Plus, Brown's only two losses in his last eight fights have come to ranked opponents (Vicente Luque and Jack Della Maddalena).

Brown's 71% takedown defense might exclusively decide this fight. If it holds, he'll likely pick Turman apart as the faster guy. Even if doesn't, "Rudeboy" Brown has three UFC submissions to Turman's one. I don't forecast this one to be competitive.

Betting Verdict: I'm showing value on Brown up to -425, so he's a great parlay piece if you don't love the juice. Turman's upset path is also likely a finish, and his defense is poor, so I also fancy under 2.5 rounds (-134) in this one.

DFS Verdict: Brown's overall pace isn't ideal, but Turman should force him into a fantasy-friendly approach as a striker. To me, he's an MVP candidate at $21.

Neil Magny vs. Phil Rowe

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Phil Rowe's resumé doesn't look like that of a guy who has historically beaten longtime UFC veteran Neil Magny.

Rowe lost his UFC debut in 2021 to Gabe Green (2-3 UFC). His first two victories have since been cut from the promotion, and last December, he had a -47 striking differential against Niko Price before connecting on a come-from-behind knockout blow. He's struggled to earn this chance.

Each of Magny's last five losses came to fighters who were ranked when they fought, so Rowe is a massive drop from that prerequisite. The do-it-all, lanky brawler can expose poor strikers with his +1.34 SSR, or he can turn to his wrestling (2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes) if that's the hole in his opponent's game.

Rowe has a 52% takedown defense and has ceded eight takedowns in his four appearances, so that's likely Magny's path to victory. However, this is also the first time Rowe will fight a guy that matches or eclipses his reach, which has helped carry him in the striking department to this point.

I like the veteran to rebound from a loss to Gilbert Burns here.

Betting Verdict: Also discussed further on Covering the Spread, Magny's KO/TKO/Submission prop (+450) is interesting to me here despite his 40.7% finishing rate historically. There are levels to mixed martial arts, and the ranked fighter might be one or two above Rowe.

DFS Verdict: Magny's viability at $17 doesn't require a finish thanks to the salary. He's still potentially live for one with a good pace historically; I'll definitely mix him into flex spots.

Brendan Allen vs. Bruno Silva

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Brown, Magny, and Brendan Allen make for a strong set of favorites transitioning to the main card.

Allen shocked the world by submitting Andre Muniz in his last bout. Muniz was the jiu-jitsu ace entering that one, and Allen beat him at his own game. Averaging 1.6 submission attempts per 15, we knew he could exploit weak grapplers, but world champions? That's a new level established.

Of course, Bruno Silva isn't one of those. He's never won a professional fight by submission to six losses. He'll be almost assuredly submitted if it gets there.

Now, Silva's 71% takedown defense shows a bit of a possibility he could keep it standing, and he is coming off a knockout win over the fading Brad Taveras (15-8 UFC). Silva's 47% striking accuracy just isn't very high, and he was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert last year before GM3 won via club and sub.

Analytically, Allen is a better version of Meerschaert with higher-level wins. He's a more capable striker without extreme durability issues. Silva's path is the same via knockout, but he's never a guy with the efficiency that I'd project for one.

Many are comparing "Blindado" Silva to Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis, the two losses on Allen's UFC record, as a striker. The difference? Their takedown defenses are both at least 85% against ranked competition. Silva's doesn't quite compare.

Betting Verdict: I gave out Allen's submission prop (+175) on Covering the Spread, too. Even at the short number, I've got it close to -105 given Allen's ascending grappling record. Bruno has already lost convincingly this way less than 12 months ago.

DFS Verdict: Allen is one of my favorite MVP candidates on the card. He's shown real aggression in the submission department, but don't discount his power into Silva's 48% striking defense, either.

Gabriel Santos vs. David Onama

Featherweight (145 pounds)

If Nate Landwehr absorbed damage like a human, this betting line would be far different.

David Onama demolished the veteran with 46 significant strikes (on 50% accuracy) in the first round of his fight with Landwehr last year in San Diego. However, throwing everything with huge power to try and finish the wounded Landwehr, Onama faded and allowed Landwehr to dominate the final two rounds via exhaustion. He was so close to a career-changing win.

On the other side, Gabriel Santos was close in his UFC debut, too. Many -- including myself -- scored the fight for him over Lerone Murphy. Entering that one, I picked Santos, who proved to be a decent wrestler regionally, to exploit Murphy's 43% takedown defense, and he did with five takedowns.

The problem was Santos ate an unprecedented amount of damage doing it. Murphy landed 45 more significant strikes on him than he has any other opponent, and Santos' striking defense (42%) was poor.

With a 45% striking accuracy, Onama is fairly accurate and much more powerful. If Santos gets clipped with shots that Landwehr -- somehow -- took, it could be a massive issue.

These are two tremendous prospects, but Onama's side represents more value. He's just been through the trials and tribulations of UFC in four bouts; Santos hasn't even fought someone that can stop his wrestling.

Betting Verdict: I do prefer the Onama side on the moneyline (+186), but over 2.5 rounds (+116) here is the real prize. Neither fighter has been professionally finished against tougher, more proven competition than what they represent to each other.

DFS Verdict: Santos and Onama's pace in their respective previous fights was insanely high. If this over does hit, fantasy goodness should be had on both sides. That said, Onama ($9) is a steal in the punting range as I forecast a competitive bout.

Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

I mentioned Gillian Robertson was my second favorite underdog on the card. I'll be holding my breath for exactly two minutes for my favorite.

That's because the powerful Justin Tafa hasn't won a UFC fight that's extended into the third minute. While I'd like to credit Tafa with unmanageable power, he got destroyed in decisions against Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa. He's truly a one-shot wonder as a heavyweight.

That means if Austen Lane can handle his power, I think the former Jaguars defensive end -- still living in Duval County -- can put on a show for the hometown fans. Lane makes his UFC debut on Saturday.

In addition to wrestling success regionally, Lane will carry a +2.36 SSR from the Contender Series and six-inch edge in reach into what appears to be a brawl. When comparing his figure to Tafa's, it's not really doubtful who is in better shape for a longer fight, either.

This fight replaced a canceled one on the main card this weekend. I don't believe it's because UFC wants the hometown guy gets flattened in his first appearance.

Betting Verdict: Lane's ML (+144) is my favorite of the week. Tafa's nonexistent grappling sample makes a dart at a win by submission (+950) kind of interesting, too.

DFS Verdict: For such a volatile fight with obvious upside, Lane likely goes mostly ignored with Tafa's projected win equity so high at a minimal salary difference. I love the contrarian pivot to the hometown hero at $14.

Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

My model and I are both more confident that Amanda Ribas will win than even these 66.2% implied odds will state, but I have no interest in the experience.

That's because instead of "The Future", Maycee Barber's nickname should be "The Split Decision". Like Emmers earlier, Barber lost her fastball to a knee injury in 2020 and has been to six straight decisions, eclipsing 65 significant strikes in none of them.

Barber uses her strength to push the fight up against the cage, but she doesn't actually score much offense. The gap in FanDuel scoring shows how much more Ribas does against her previous opponents, but Barber might look to just hold her for the bulk of this fight if she can.

Still, it doesn't get better than Ribas' 69% striking defense and 88% takedown defense. She hasn't been cleanly beaten in UFC outside of a fluke knockout by Marina Rodriguez in 2020.

I cannot see Barber piercing that for a better offensive showing than she had against Andrea Lee earlier this year, and Ribas (52% takedown accuracy) can absolutely exploit Barber's 47% takedown defense.

However, with this fight -186 to go the distance, judges consistently reward Barber's strength and control more than they should, per the criteria that say to value damage. It wouldn't surprise me if a busier Ribas lost a stunning split decision if Lee somehow did in San Antonio.

Betting Verdict: I've got Ribas closer to -350 to win, so she should be a fine parlay piece, but I am also not projecting a finish. I really don't want to leave hard-earned, U.S. dollars in the hands of MMA judges. The heavy juice on over 2.5 rounds (-215) is justified.

DFS Verdict: The winner of a Barber fight since her injury hasn't topped 65 FanDuel points. On a large card, avoiding this one is a top priority for me. I'd rather even turn to Rebecki-Radzhabov if forced.

Ilia Topuria vs. Josh Emmett

Featherweight (145 pounds)

In his first appearance since being named to my 2023 pound-for-pound fantasy rankings, Ilia Topuria got a matchup he can dominate.

Topuria just went into Bryce Mitchell's world as a grappler and submitted him. Overall, he's second on the card in submission attempts per 15 minutes (2.5) and also lands 2.45 takedowns per 15. As a striker, Topuria has already earned a pair of knockouts with an excellent 62% striking defense to boot.

Josh Emmett has an uphill climb to hang in there as a grappler this weekend. He was just submitted by Yair Rodriguez in his last fight, and Emmett's 58% takedown defense is poor in general. He's also largely lost what thrust him up the rankings to face guys like Topuria in the first place.

Like Emmers and Barber, Emmett also blew out his knee in 2020. Since returning, he's had a -73 striking differential despite -- somehow -- amassing a 2-1 record with minimal wrestling. Bad judging has helped. More importantly, Emmett has just one total knockdown during this time.

Before the injury, Emmett had at least one knockdown in six straight fights. He was the featherweight division's hammer. Without that same power, his low striking accuracy (37%) has put him into a mode to grind out ugly decisions with strikers like Calvin Kattar and Dan Ige.

Topuria is a better grappler than Yair, so that part is concerning for Josh by itself. Given Topuria's accuracy when striking (49%) is also better with identical defensive marks, this one figures to be a rout.

Betting Verdict: I won't pick up pennies in front of a bulldozer with Topuria despite showing value up to -550. I will, however, take a chance at Topuria's submission prop (+150), which I have closer to -105.

DFS Verdict: Topuria is the control MVP option at $23. He is a ground technician, so there could be plenty of empty control time as a path to failure, but he made my fantasy rankings for a reason. He's aggressive and downright mean.