UFC Vegas 76: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action each and every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC Vegas 76: Strickland vs. Magomedov, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday.

Alexandr Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

This fight really depends on which Alexandr Romanov we get, and even then, it's not exactly a barnburner.

Romanov was embarrassed by Alexander Volkov as he came in 20 pounds heavier at The Virgin Hotels in Vegas earlier this year, which halted a 5-1 stretch for one of heavyweight's better prospects. Unfortunately, he seems to have carried the weight into this one.

Still, at his best, Romanov's 4.96 takedowns per 15 minutes (with 52% accuracy) have dominated most foes. The only problem for him here is Blagoy Ivanov fights the same fight every time.

Behind a 71% takedown defense, "Baga" has historically kept the fight standing against the cage and ugly. His poor fantasy scoring and striking success rate (SSR) show how inactive he is with strikes, supplementing just 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes with it.

This really is great matchmaking. Romanov's style against a guy who hasn't surrendered multiple takedowns in a fight? That's a great test to see if Romanov is in better shape and can rebound.

If he's not, there's a path to this fight being super ugly. Ivanov has gone to seven straight decisions and likely won't put him on the ropes even with a cardio advantage.

Betting Verdict: Romanov showed up at an identical weight to last time and appears to be in similar shape. With a better opponent, I'd love to fade him, but this one is a spot to stay away.

DFS Verdict: If there's any upside at all, it would be from Romanov at $16, but I am out after weigh-ins. Ivanov's career-high of 87.8 FanDuel points came more then four years ago. He just doesn't push the pace.

Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

This isn't the preview to suggest how or why Ivana Petrovic wins this fight.

Petrovic is a 6-0 fighter from Norway with excellent size for this division at 5' 8". She's mostly a ground-oriented fighter, which isn't easy to tell from a 33% regional submission rate. She's certainly on the raw side at 29 years old, but her physical tools and battering of ARES FC earned a contract.

On the other side, Luana Carolina has a modest UFC sample with a 3-3 record. She's got a +0.55 SSR despite a -52 striking differential in consecutive losses to Joanne Wood and Molly McCann, who are tough strikers. She'll undoubtedly be the better striker here.

Carolina's 71% takedown defense, on paper, gives her a chance to win this fight if it holds true. Petrovic will be the largest girl trying to take her down yet, but that could also lead to exhaustion. It's also just hard to turn away from Carolina's modest competition level thus far versus a total newcomer whose opponents haven't and won't sniff UFC.

Betting Verdict: Though Petrovic's sample is nonexistent, I still feel comfortable firing a unit on Carolina's moneyline. On paper, this is a good matchup for her, and she'll be a value with the public never rushing to bet on fighters coming off consecutive losses.

DFS Verdict: Petrovic's wrestling-heavy style is awful for DFS, so she'll need a finish when this fight is -205 to go the distance. Punting to Carolina ($12) is even easier than making a bet.

Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener

Lightweight (155 pounds)

We have a couple of throwaway fights this weekend, including an 86.1% implied chance that Guram Kutateladze moves to 2-1 in UFC.

Kutateladze's debut was a split-decision win over Mateusz Gamrot, and his second fight was a split-decision loss to Damir Ismagulov. Regardless of results, those were close bouts with two fighters ranked in the top 12 of UFC's lightweight division.

This weekend, he probably gets a pass with Elves Brener. Brener's debut came at 155 pounds facing Zubaira Tukhugov, who normally fights 10 pounds lighter at featherweight. Even with size and strength advantages, Brener mustered a -1 striking differential to win a decision every single media member felt he didn't deserve.

This wide of a betting line for guys who have been to nothing but split decisions is a bit unnerving, but Kutateladze is easy to project well going in this one. In addition to fighting better competition, these two have identical striking accuracies (43%) and defenses (58%) with no wrestling to this point.

Betting Verdict: Based on the gap in level, Kutateladze's inside-the-distance prop (+100) could be a value. This is his easiest test in UFC after knocking down both previous opponents.

DFS Verdict: I do think Kutateladze's MVP candidacy is strong. We should see his best volume yet, and he's shown power. Racking up 78 significant strikes in a tough bout with Ismagulov is enough scoring potential, and he's just $22 thanks to a larger favorite we'll get to later.

Karol Rosa vs. Yana Santos

Women's Featherweight (145 pounds)

Don't get too excited women's featherweight fan(s); this one is just a short-notice bantamweight bout. The division is still dead.

Karol Rosa will make her second straight walk at 145 pounds as she replaces Macy Chiasson in this one against Yana Santos. Rosa was bested by Norma Dumont in her first appearance.

Rosa is interesting. She's landed 5.58 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, blitzing out any less qualified competition. However, her stock has taken a huge hit since reaching the UFC's rankings. She was controlled for 69.7% of her fight with Sara McMann, was dropped by Lina Lansberg, and was outstruck by Dumont. She's been lucky to escape with a 1-2 record, and I'm left wondering what upside she has.

As for Santos, she's lost to top-five contenders (Holly Holm and Irene Aldana) in consecutive fights, allowing 7 of the last 14 takedown attempts she's faced to land.

Really, this fight solely comes down to Rosa's ability level. Santos has struggled with her wrestling in the top five, but she's won four of her five bouts outside of that competition level. Santos' excellent 53% takedown accuracy could be an issue for Rosa given how the McMann fight played out.

In addition to all this, this bout is happening due to a last-minute agreement. Tread carefully.

Betting Verdict: I've got this fight closer to a pick 'em leaning toward Santos. Unless her confidence is totally shot, she's dominated other fighters on the ground -- including top-10-ranked Ketlen Vieira. I'll begrudgingly take a shot at her moneyline.

DFS Verdict: This fight is -270 to go the distance, so we're not likely to see an early finish. Rosa hasn't topped 75 FanDuel points against a ranked fighter. In that case, Santos as a $14 punt for salary makes sense even if you don't think she wins.

Joanderson Brito vs. Westin Wilson

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

I truly think UFC is just trying its hand at seeing if they have the power to manufacture a star out of nothing.

That's the only logic for Westin Wilson getting this spot. Wilson's last three foes have a combined 21-35 record at his poor competition level, and he was flattened by Teruto Ishihara (13-11-1 regionally) less than 12 months ago. Now, he'll fight multi-time UFC winner Joanderson Brito.

Brito isn't my favorite. He lost his debut to the forgettable Bill Algeo (4-3 UFC) before blitzing Andre Fili, universally considered a better fighter, with a swift knockout. Fili was a -235 favorite if that one had any length. Even with an easy strength of schedule, his 50% striking defense is a knockout waiting to happen.

His last fight was with outmatched newcomer Lucas Alexander, and here's another. Brito was already in a favorable position to draw Khusein Ashkabov (0-1 UFC) before Wilson stepped up. Now, his new opponent is significantly worse. These 94.1% implied odds to win come from UFC intentionally trying to build up the power puncher.

Betting Verdict: No thanks for anything having to do with this fight. Brito should find a first-round finish (-220) by some method, but there isn't any value on that number if he chooses to play it safe. I don't want to guess how long he plays with his food.

DFS Verdict: Here's where you can back Brito at $23 in droves. He's favored for a first-round finish, so swallow the chalk.

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Kevin Lee

Welterweight (170 pounds)

He's back.

Kevin Lee has fought for a UFC title and headlined several shows, so his 2021 exit from the promotion was a stunner. After messing around with Khabib Nurmagomedov's Eagle FC promotion, he negotiated a return.

"The Motown Phenom" is a decorated wrestler despite his signature moment coming on the feet. Truly, he's just struggled to find a weight class for him. He's 0-2 at welterweight but can't make lightweight reliably, so he's kind of between this box. It doesn't help that he lost to Rafael Dos Anjos (a natural 155er) in one of those, anyway.

The problem is Rinat Fakhretdinov is massive for 170 pounds, leaning closer to a middleweight frame. He fought at 185 pounds and dominated in his last fight against Bryan Battle. Fakhretdinov has mowed through two UFC starts averaging 6.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with 63% accuracy.

This fight solely comes down to Lee's 75% takedown defense -- which mostly comes from lightweight. It's just 43% at welterweight thus far. I have a hard time believing that Fakhretdinov, who has scored control time for 90.6% of his UFC career thus far, won't blanket him if that 43% mark holds. His control stats don't even sound possible.

I think "Gladiator" dominates the smaller Lee in a boring fight.

Betting Verdict: Fakhretdinov has shown no urgency to finish weaker foes, so him to win by decision (+160) seems like a gift in this space. He's implied to win 68.3% of the time, and I've got upwards of 85% of that coming via a decision.

DFS Verdict: Fakhretdinov is my only win pick at $16, and I'm guessing the other two fighters end up more popular. At the very least, his takedown volume has been good for a mid-range salary.

Brunno Ferreira vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Middleweight (185 pounds)

The sample on Brunno Ferreira is tiny, but as someone who took a shot on him in his UFC debut, I still have some confidence.

He knocked out the credentialed Gregory Rodrigues (4-2 UFC), but the +1 striking differential in nearly a round of work still lets us know he's got UFC-level chops. Ferreira also has a judo background that we haven't seen much as he's sent consecutive opponents to the shadow realm before the horn.

He was originally scheduled here with Abdul Razak-Alhassan in a slugger's delight, but Nursulton Ruziboev will step in on short notice without a sample. Working regionally in Russia, Ruziboev last fought in 2022, scoring a win over a foe with a losing record. Not great, Bob!

With 20 of his 34 pro wins via a variety of submission types, Ruziboev likely can grapple a bit. It's possible the UFC made this matchup as a kill-or-be-killed stylistic clash where Ferreira can't grapple at all. We haven't seen the undefeated Ferreira asked to do it.

I don't know enough about Ferreira's grappling to feel confident here, but he's clearly got the better -- and a solid -- profile.

Betting Verdict: This fight is -220 to go under 1.5 rounds, so oddsmakers believe a car crash is coming. I will say: the longer this goes, the more likely it favors the underdog wrestler over the slugger. Perhaps Ferreira's first-round KO prop (+155) has value.

DFS Verdict: Though risky, Ferreira put up a high pace and knocked out a proven fighter in his debut. He's got an MVP ceiling at $17.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Lightweight (155 pounds)

These two fighters haven't put a foot out of place at 155 pounds, so this could end up as the best fight on the card short of the main event.

Ismael Bonfim exploded through Terrance McKinney (3-2 UFC) in his promotional debut, and Benoit Saint Denis is 2-0 at lightweight with both wins via an early stoppage.

Saint Denis' home at lightweight was a turn of events when he made his UFC debut at welterweight, absorbing a violent 149 significant strikes from Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos. His SSR is still bearing the weight of that whooping.

As much as I want to believe in BSD, the two foes he's turned away are 0-4 combined in UFC. Bonfim's measuring stick with McKinney, who has a ranked win on his resumé, is significantly better when he's also been hyper-efficient through his two UFC-affiliated bouts.

If Saint Denis' 43% striking defense against Zaleski Dos Santos returns, he'll be chopped liver here. That was the only time since 2017 that EZDS has eclipsed 65 significant strikes, so I'm expecting that the top prospect has his way in this one.

Betting Verdict: If I project Saint Denis' striking defense in the range of 40%, the accurate Bonfim swells north of -500 here. That's good enough to perhaps use as a parlay piece, but I don't have enough data to determine a method of victory.

DFS Verdict: Bonfim is one of the three MVP candidates with moneyline juice who provide unmatched win equity. He's my second-favorite of the three with two first-round finishes in his holster. At $21, he's historically more aggressive than Kutateladze.

Melissa Gatto vs. Ariane Lipski

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

I've mentioned before the chasm of skill at the top and bottom of the women's divisions is so wide that in one camp, a fighter can make substantial gains. Ariane Lipski did.

She was a reborn fighter after just a few months with Amanda Nunes' new group. Lipski landed a career-high 101 significant strikes with 49% accuracy at The Virgin Hotels earlier this year, but most notably, she defended all 12 of JJ Aldrich's takedown attempts. Aldrich (7-5 UFC) is no slouch, and Lipski beat her pillar to post.

Melissa Gatto doesn't have a win that strong yet. Gatto overwhelmed Victoria Leonardo (1-3) as a mysterious figure from Brazil with minimal footage in her debut, and she let Sijara Eubanks punch her to exhaustion in her next bout after. Eubanks faded, allowing Gatto to collect the win.

Trouble came when Gatto fought Tracy Cortez. Cortez controlled her for 52.7% of their fight, landing two of three takedowns with ease. Concerningly, Gatto landed just 27 of 69 significant strikes (39.1%) at distance when Cortez isn't super comfortable as a striker.

Lipski's new, improved offerings are an interesting challenge. If her takedown defense remains perfect, she's got much more experience at distance. Gatto's peripherals are largely juiced from the debut against Leonardo, and if Eubanks didn't tire, she's probably 1-2 in UFC without a quality win.

Betting Verdict: Lipski's ascending stock can absolutely win this fight. If factoring in quality takedown defense, I've actually got her favored to win. I haven't seen enough from Gatto at the multi-time-winner level to disprove that.

DFS Verdict: Gatto's path to victory is likely through grappling, which only hurts her appeal as a heavy favorite. Lipski ($13) is another easy process punt with the other heavy favorites.

Michael Morales vs. Max "Pain" Griffin

Welterweight (170 pounds)

With young, inexperienced prospects like Michael Morales, the price you have to pay for backing them relies on some pretty small, uncomfortable data samples. I no longer love his.

Morales is just 23 years old, so experience isn't his forté. He blasted out Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt in his first two UFC starts, but there are concerns. It took him significantly longer to dispatch Fugitt than Mike Malott (3-0 UFC), who didn't even carry these odds to beat Fugitt.

Plus, Morales' 40% striking defense is ripe for the taking by a reliable veteran who hits hard. That describes Max Griffin word for word.

Griffin has quietly won four of his last five, and some felt he beat Neil Magny in the exception. Between a 57% striking defense and 75% takedown defense, he'll be by far the most reliable fighter that Morales has been in there with at this stage.

"Pain" also has a knockdown in each of his last four fights, so Morales' chin is likely to face its first true test. Griffin hasn't been finished since a short-notice debut in 2016, so the prospect of backing the youngster at such a price makes me queasy.

Betting Verdict: Griffin's longevity in fights makes his +215 moneyline a value simply on the basis the judges get this fight wrong. He's also got a lot of positives trending toward a knockdown or knockout (+650), too.

DFS Verdict: Morales is a much harder fade than Fakhretdinov or Gatto simply because his ceiling is quite high, but the durable veteran opposing him also isn't close to the cakewalk Brito or Kutateladze have at a similar salary to $20.

Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Some fighters I just can't get right, so tread carefully when Grant Dawson is one of them.

Dawson, a wrestler from American Top Team, moved up to 155 pounds in 2021. He went 2-0-1 with a -1 striking differential across bouts with 34-year-old Ricky Glenn, 43-year-old Leo Santos, and Jared Gordon -- a fellow former featherweight. Even in his last bout, Mark O. Madsen (4-1 UFC) is a former Olympic silver medalist, but he's 38.

I just don't think he's shown he can truly hang amongst lightweight's elite to this stage, and Damir Ismagulov will tell us the truth. Ismagulov won a split decision over the aforementioned Kutateladze before going the distance -- in a loss -- with title contender Arman Tsarukyan.

Ismagulov made Tsarukyan work hard for 7 takedowns on 21 attempts, and Dawson's 34% takedown accuracy entering this fight is worse than Tsarukyan's (36%) despite a much lower competitive level.

I keep wondering when Dawson's poor 45% striking defense will bite him, and it should be here if Ismagulov can defend takedowns as he has historically.

Betting Verdict: I have a rare two-unit wager (for me) on Ismagulov's moneyline (-110). I see him as north of -250 with Dawson's projected inefficiency as a wrestler. However, there are just three pro losses between these guys, so the -182 odds for this fight to go the distance are extremely appropriate.

DFS Verdict: In a gritty fight, Ismagulov ($16) will be the one trying to score strikes. Dawson has never topped 60 significant strikes in a scrap. Without his wrestling, he always dries up quickly in fantasy.

Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov

Middleweight (185 pounds; Five-Round Main Event)

When I call Khabib Nurmagomedov my personal GOAT in MMA, betting lines like this are why.

Fighters with the phrase "Magomed" somewhere in their name -- usually carrying a connection to Khabib's MMA empire in Dagestan, Russia -- have an 85.2% win rate in UFC. That's why Abus Magomedov is getting so much respect here despite a horrid resumé for a bout with a top-five middleweight.

Don't get me wrong; Magomedov is a really solid fighter. His gaudy stats come from a 19-second thumping of Dustin Stoltzfus (1-4 UFC), so I couldn't care less about them and am treating him as a debutant. A key win over one of PFL's best light heavyweights, Sadibou Sy, is a good feather in his cap, but getting flattened by Louis Taylor in 2018 with the same promotion? Not so much.

Sean Strickland has just done it so much longer and so much better at the very top level of this division. Strickland's resumé -- with indisputable wins over Brendan Allen, Jack Hermansson, and Nassourdine Imavov -- is underrated, and two of those key wins were on short notice.

For a middleweight, Strickland's pace of 5.76 significant strikes per minute just melts bigger guys in this division, and he barely breaks a sweat. That comes with minimal power, but he wins convincingly despite it, and his 85% takedown defense is exceptional to keep him striking and in a position to win.

A quick loss to this division's former champion, Alex Pereira, has Sean on "knockout watch" for many this week. That was also his only loss by a stoppage since 2018, and his 63% striking defense is outstanding. If he survives an early flurry from a longer, more powerful Magomedov, I believe he cruises to another decision win.

Betting Verdict: If I'm forecasting Magomedov as a debutant with fine-to-iffy striking defense, Strickland balloons to -350 territory in my stuff while mostly going to a decision. Strickland by points (+190) is a number I can't believe is available, and you can even hedge a tiny bit with Magomedov R1 KO/TKO (+1200).

DFS Verdict: I never ignore Strickland in fantasy. He's almost penciled in for 100 significant strikes in a five-rounder. I don't feel the need to go MVP with the other three heavy favorites, which also alleviates the finishing concerns he has carrying a $19 salary.