US Open Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/7/22
With both Serena Williams and Rafael Nadal ousted from the US Open, it's time for the new guard to shine in the second week of play.
What better way to get in on the action than making some wagers on FanDuel Sportsbook?
The quarterfinals continue on Wednesday. Which matches have the most betting value?
Andrey Rublev (-110) over Frances Tiafoe
After Frances Tiafoe knocked out Nadal in the last round, we could be on the verge of seeing the American make a very real breakthrough. This is just his second quarterfinals at a Grand Slam, and it's his first at the US Open.
However, while he's the sentimental pick, with this being pegged as a virtual toss-up between him and Andrey Rublev -- both sides are -110 to win -- the conventional pick is to take the value on the higher-seeded and more established player.
While Rublev had a mixed summer on hard courts (4-3), he did make the semis at Washington and is 22-7 overall on the surface this season. His winter and spring included championships at Dubai and Marseille and semifinal appearances at Indian Wells and Rotterdam.
Despite Tiafoe's strong run thus far, he entered the tournament with a 10-9 record on hard courts this season -- though he was a solid 6-4 this summer. Still, he's only three games above .500 across all surfaces (21-18) and has lacked the general consistency that Rublev has shown (36-14).
Overall, according to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Rublev has roughly a 105-point advantage when factoring in the surface. That gives him a 68.0% win probability, which is a good step up from the 52.4% implied odds at the -110 price.
Karolina Pliskova (+114) over Aryna Sabalenka
Former world No.1 Karolina Pliskova has made several deep runs at the Slams over her career, particularly on hard courts, but she's never quite been able to get over the top and lift that trophy. She made the US Open final back in 2016, and this marks her fourth quarterfinals in six tries since.
However, she's failed to move past this round in her last three attempts, and she'll hope to break that streak on Wednesday. While her 2022 campaign has been mixed, Pliskova made the semifinals in Toronto this summer, and she remains one of the most dangerous servers on tour.
Still just 24 years old, Aryna Sabalenka is trying to find more consistency at the majors, but she made the semis at Wimbledon and the US Open in 2021. She's also coming off a semifinal appearance at Cincinnati this August where she fell to a scorching-hot Caroline Garcia in three sets.
Overall, we're looking at two successful hard-court players, and while Sabalenka is the deserving -137 favorite as the higher-ranked and slightly steadier 2022 player, this really could go either way. In their head-to-head meetings, the two competitors are 2-2, but it's Pliskova who's emerged victorious in the most recent two, both of which came last year.
Per Tennis Abstract, Pliskova will win this matchup 50.3% of the time, so we're getting decent value compared to her 46.7% implied win odds.
