MISC

Wimbledon Men's Final Betting Guide: Sunday 7/16/23

Kenyatta Storin  —  @KenyattaStorin Jul 14th, 2023
Carlos Alcaraz has won comfortably over his last two opponents, and a highly-anticipated showdown with Novak Djokovic awaits him in the final. Who ultimately prevails to take home the title?

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, we're nearing the end of another fantastic Wimbledon. What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The tournament comes to a close on Sunday. How should we bet the men's finals on Day 14?

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+130)
Over 40.5 Total Match Games (-110)

While it ultimately didn't work out, I'm taking the same approach in this match as Novak Djokovic's semifinal against Jannik Sinner.

At first glance, the Sinner match was a routine straight-sets win for Djokovic, but the stats show that this was a much closer battle than the final score would suggest. In the third set, Sinner failed to convert on two set points when he was up 5-4, and then even after that, the set came down to a tiebreak. Had Sinner been able to execute in some of these crucial moments to win the set, the over total match games would've hit, and chances are we see Novak winning the match in the following set.

While Sinner came up short for us, we should feel pretty confident that World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will be able to take one set -- at least -- away from Djokovic.

Alcaraz remains perfect on grass this season, and he's dispatched back-to-back top-10 opponents in straight sets over the last two rounds (Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune). He's now a ridiculous 46-4 overall this season. If anyone is going to dethrone Djokovic, it's Alcaraz.

And yet, despite all of this, I still have a hard time seeing him beating arguably the greatest of all time at what might be his favorite tournament.

Even after all Djokovic has accomplished, the 36-year-old remains hell-bent on adding to his gaudy Grand Slam totals, and it's no secret that the Calendar Slam remains one of his remaining career goals. He's on a 34-match win streak at this tournament that dates back to 2018, and he's one win away from tying former rival Roger Federer for the most Wimbledon titles of all time. Out of his eight finals appearances at this tournament, Djokovic has failed to finish the job only once (2013).

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings see Djokovic winning 61.5% of the time, showing that, at least on paper, Alcaraz does have a real shot here. While the Spaniard had a disappointing result against Novak at the French Open, that had more to do with him falling victim to cramps, so we probably shouldn't read too much into that.

Alcaraz should give Djokovic everything he can handle, and I fully expect this to go four or five sets. But on this surface and at this event, it's hard to go against Djokovic on Sunday.