3 MLB FanDuel Studs to Target on 4/25/18
Clayton Kershaw, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
Price: $11,400
It's not often you see betting odds as lopsided as they are for tonight's matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins.
The Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the slate, with a -343 moneyline, giving them an implied win probability roughly 10% higher than any other team on the slate. And, accordingly, this leaves the Marlins with a tiny 2.53 implied total, over half a run lower than any other team.
Clayton Kershaw is coming off an underwhelming start in his last outing, but for a guy with his track record of dominance, one shaky night isn't anything to worry about long-term. Through five starts in 2018, he still boasts an outstanding 2.78 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), a 26.9% strikeout rate, a 2.3% walk rate, and has forced almost as much soft contact (25.0% soft-hit rate) as he has allowed hard contact (27.2% hard-hit rate). He's coming off three straight seasons with strikeout rates of at least 29.8% and swinging-strike rates of at least 14.1%, and he remains an elite fantasy arm.
Tonight's matchup is also a particularly kind one, as those betting odds indicate. Miami ranks below-average with a 91 wRC+ against southpaws on the year, and they're striking out at a top-10 rate (24.1%) to open the season.
Combining Kershaw's greatness with his matchup, numberFire's models follow suit and project him as the highest-scoring fantasy pitcher on tonight's main slate.