Fantasy Baseball: Which Atlanta Braves Pitchers Can You Trust?

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon McCarthy is still healthy. He's not on the disabled list. That's the first bit of good news.

In 2014, McCarthy pitched 200 innings and made 32 starts for the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees. In the three seasons that followed, McCarthy made a total of 29 starts and pitched 145.2 innings combined, spending multiple weeks and months on the disabled list in each season.

So far this year, McCarthy has been healthy and stable for a young Atlanta team, with a 3.09 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 3.94 xFIP in 6 starts (32.0 innings). He's not a big strikeout guy (7.03 K/9) but doesn't walk a ton (3.38 BB/9) and is generating ground balls at a 50.0% rate so far this season. He's also second in baseball in hard-hit rate with just 22.5% of balls put in play considered "hard-hit" by Fangraphs. Only Aaron Nola's 21.6% is better.

Can McCarthy keep it up? Probably not. He's getting only a 6.2% swinging strike from hitters thus far, below his career average of 7.8%. Hitters are putting a ton of balls in play against him with a 91.0% contact rate on balls in the strike zone and a big dip in swings on pitches out of the zone, 24.1%, compared to his career mark of 30.6%.

It's likely wise to sell McCarthy now before his injury history and potential regression catch up to him.