Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Due for Negative Home Run Regression in 2019
David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2018 - Home Runs: 30 (24th), FB: 29.2%, HR/FB: 23.4%
The humidor be damned, David Peralta socked his way to 30 homers a season ago, doubling his 14 homers in 2017. So is the pop here to stay?
Tread carefully. The lefty swinger possesses some absolutely absurd platoon splits, and further regression against lefties may lose him some playing time moving forward.
| Split | PAs | BA | HR | ISO | FB % | HR/FB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 187 | 0.237 | 8 | 0.162 | 28.6% | 22.2% |
| RHP | 427 | 0.318 | 22 | 0.251 | 29.5% | 23.9% |
Peralta already has a fly-ball rate well below the league average but seems to have gotten a bit lucky with an inflated HR/FB. We think he slides back a bit this season to around 23 home runs, and given his lack of lineup protection with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock moving on from Arizona, that seems all the more likely.
