How Will the Top Rookie MLB Position Players From Last Season Perform in 2015?

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds, OF

With speed that made him almost legendary in the minors, Hamilton played in his first full big league season, and while he was an exciting player in 2014, struggles at the plate dampened the enthusiasm somewhat.

Still, his defense and baserunning made him a 3.7 fWAR and 2.5 rWAR player, as he tied for second in baseball in steals (56) and seventh in base running runs above average, and his play in centerfield was second in defensive runs above average, according to FanGraphs.

The steal total is shiny but loses some of its luster when considering Hamilton’s 23 times getting caught stealing led the league (his 70.8% conversion rate is slightly above what is considered the break even point, but of the 56 players with at least 20 stolen base attempts last year, Hamilton ranked 47th in success rate).

Getting caught stealing was not his biggest issue though, as his .292 on-base percentage was much more problematic. Hamilton only walked 5.6% of the time, and, given the type of player he is, he would do well to raise his 41.5% ground ball rate, which was below the big league average. He is not a power hitter and can obviously beat out grounders, so hitting the ball in the air at an above average frequency is not doing him any good.

Hitting more ground balls should raise his BABIP and help him improve on last year’s 79 wRC+. ZiPS and numberFire forecast some improvement from last year’s .250/.292/.355 line, while Steamer and PECOTA expect more of the same at the plate.