How Will the Top Rookie MLB Position Players From Last Season Perform in 2015?

Danny Santana, Minnesota Twins, SS/OF

To say Santana burst onto the scene in his debut season is certainly an understatement, as he hit .319/.353/.472 (133 wRC+) in 430 plate appearances, and was worth 3.3 fWAR and 3.9 rWAR.

Just how surprising was this? His .825 OPS in 2015 was 86 points better than his minor league high (in 2012 in Single-A Fort Myers) and 123 points better than his minor league average.

You don’t need to be Tom Tango to see this won’t happen again, as Santana posted a staggering .405 BABIP. Yes, his 26% line drive rate was impressive, but the 24-year-old almost certainly will not be as lucky on batted balls this year.

This is bad news, given his 4.4% walk rate and 22.8% strikeout rate that were the products of an undisciplined approach at the plate. 40% of Santana’s swings came on pitches outside the zone, the 12th highest rate among players with at least 400 plate appearances, according to FanGraphs. This was probably ill-advised, given he only made contact on 65.9% of these swings, compared to the Major League average of 65.8%.

He was a strong base runner, though, as he swiped 20 bases and was only caught four times, and was worth 5.0 base running runs above average, which was tied for 17th in the American League.

This skill combined with an adequate, if unspectacular glove, will give Santana value, even if his hitting stats come crashing back down to earth (as the projections say they will).