How Will the Top Rookie MLB Position Players From Last Season Perform in 2015?

Ender Inciarte, Arizona Diamondbacks, OF

Inciarte was another rookie whose strong defense compensated for a below-average bat. His .278 average and .318 OBP were adequate (given the big league average slash line of .251/.314/.386), but his .359 slugging percentage pulled his wRC+ to 87 (13% below the big league average).

Still, another NL outfielder with a below average bat would be well served to take a page out of Inciarte’s playbook. Unlike Hamilton, Inciarte boosted his BABIP by keeping the ball on the ground to the tune of a 51.6% ground ball rate. Inciarte’s infield hit per ground ball rate of 6.7% was only slightly above the Major League average (6.5%), but by virtue of hitting so many worm killers, Inciarte still had 12 infield hits (imagine what Hamilton and his 11.2% infield hit to ground ball rate could do with a higher ground ball rate).

Still, defense was the main reason Inciarte was worth 3.7 rWAR and 2.8 fWAR. Only Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward, and Hamilton had higher UZR among Major League outfielders, and Inciarte also ranked fifth in defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs. Given the nature of defensive metrics in relatively small samples, though, we should expect some regression here.

He did steal 19 bases on 22 attempts (86%) but only took an extra-base on teammates' singles and doubles 29% of the time according to Baseball-Reference, which was well below the big league average of 40%.

None of the projections think Inciarte will be strong at the plate, and only ZiPS thinks he will be worth more than one win in 2015.