MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/10/18

Jordan Sharp  —  @TehSharp Jul 10th, 2018
With four home runs in as many games, Jesus Aguilar will look to stay hot tonight. Where else can we find value in Tuesday's prop betting odds?

Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.

Using the odds available at Bovada Sportsbook, here are three prop bets available tonight that are good plays based on our daily MLB game projections.

Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

Jesus Aguilar OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+105)

Jesus Aguilar was likely snubbed from the All Star Game, and while he may still get in via the fan vote, I like to think he is going to take his frustration out on Pablo Lopez and the Miami Marlins' pitching staff.

The Marlins' rookie right-hander has allowed fellow righties to post a .417 wOBA over 25 total batters faced over his first 2 starts. Combine the hot matchup and the All Star revenge narrative, and our models are projecting Aguilar for 3.09 combined runs, hits, and RBI.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

Garrett Richards OVER 5 Strikeouts (-150)

We went to the chalk on all three of our plays Monday night, and they all cashed for us. It's only fitting that one of our models' most bullish projections compared to Bovada's prop odds already has -150 odds for the over.

Garrett Richards is up against the Seattle Mariners, who have suddenly gotten a little swing-happy with a 21.7% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Considering Richards has a career-best 27.7% strikeout rate this season, and a 29.6% strikeout rate at home, our models project him for 6.92 punchouts on the night.

Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves

Julio Teheran OVER 5 Strikeouts (-150)

Another chalky but valuable play tonight could be Julio Teheran. The Atlanta Braves' starter is up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who own a 23.3% strikeout rate against right-handers this season.

Teheran has also been more successful pitching in the new SunTrust Park this year. He owns a 23.5% strikeout rate at home this season, and tonight against the Jays our models like him to produce 5.82 strikeouts.