5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 9/12/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Tyler Mahle, SP, Cincinnati Reds ($6,600)
In a slate with a lot of high-priced starting pitching, Tyler Mahle's a great contrarian play thanks to his strikeout upside and his matchup.
As one of the cheaper plays on tonight’s board, Mahle has shown his upside in 2019, amassing at least 31 Fanduel points in 11 of his 21 starts. He's also shown his strikeout upside by striking out at least seven batters in eight of his 21 starts this season.
Tonight, Mahle faces the Seattle Mariners. Since the July 31st trade deadline, the Mariners rank in the bottom five in baseball in both team-wide wOBA and wRC+, making Tyler Mahle a great value for tonight’s matchup.
Austin Riley, OF, Atlanta Braves ($2,300)
In his short sample against left-handed pitching, Austin Riley has completely dominated, making him a great play at his extremely cheap price tonight.
In 64 plate appearances against left-handed hitting, Riley is hitting for a .291/.375/.745 slash line with seven home runs and four doubles. His struggles have come mainly against right-handed pitching, but he’s been consistently great against lefties.
Tonight, Riley will face Philadelphia Phillies starter, Drew Smyly. Smyly has shown an ability to be beaten via the home run, as he’s allowed 29 in 101 ⅔ innings in 2019. Riley is a boom or bust play, with big upside given Smyly’s home run struggles and Riley’s power.
Gavin Lux, 2B, ($2,800) Matt Beaty, 1B, ($2,900) and Chris Taylor, OF, ($3,000), Los Angeles Dodgers
Tonight’s short slate is filled with tough matchups, so a Los Angeles Dodgers stack against Baltimore Orioles starter Dylan Bundy makes a lot of sense to me.
Starting with Gavin Lux, the top prospect hasn’t been amazing since his call-up but has consistently been in the lineup against right-handed pitching. His talent is undeniable, and he’s going to go on a stretch that balloons his price up soon enough.
Matt Beaty has continuously dominated right-handed pitching. His .314 average comes with all nine of his home runs on the season, and those results have earned him everyday chances against righties.
Lastly, Chris Taylor makes for a great play today given his results since coming back from the injured list August 20th. Taylor has an .874 OPS since returning, and that has come with three home runs, five doubles, and a triple. He’s started 15 of the team’s last 17 games, and if he’s in the lineup tonight, he makes for a great value.
Streaming against Dylan Bundy makes a lot of sense given his recent struggles. Over his last 63 ⅓ innings, Bundy has allowed 11 home runs and has a 5.65 ERA. His strikeout rate has dipped in that time period as well, with just 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings in that span.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
