5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 6/29/21

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's full 15-game main slate.

German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies ($7,000)

We have a number of aces available to us tonight, but the lowest-salaried one, by far, is German Marquez. I know, rostering a pitcher at Coors Field borders on insane, but it's not as insane as you might think with Marquez in this spot.

This season, Marquez sports a 3.56 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and 3.68 xFIP on his home field, and those numbers would look a heck of a lot better if not for one brutal start versus the San Francisco Giants in early May, when he ceded eight earned runs in just two-thirds of an inning. In fact, over his last five starts at Coors, Marquez has a 4-0 record with 5 quality starts, a 1.69 ERA, and 31 punchouts in 32 innings. The 26-year-old has racked up at least 34 FanDuel points in seven of his last eight outings on his home turf, and that includes outputs of 40, 43, 43, 43, and 55. At a salary of just $7,000, that'll play.

Marquez will also benefit from a plus matchup tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the season, Pittsburgh's 85 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching is tied for the sixth-worst mark in the majors.

Honorable Mention: On a night where we have five aces with salaries of $9,800 or higher, someone like Charlie Morton ($9,000) could actually prove to be one of the slate's better value plays. Over his last seven starts, Morton has a 2.38 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, and 29.7% strikeout rate, according to FanGraphs. His opponent, the New York Mets, has a 68 wRC+ and 26.0% strikeout rate over their last 14 games, which rank second-worst and third-worst, respectively, during that stretch. Morton's produced 43 and 64 FanDuel points in his last two efforts versus New York.

Tony Kemp, 2B/OF, Oakland Athletics ($2,400)

Texas Rangers right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season so far. Through 15 starts (80 innings), the 29-year-old carries a 5.40 ERA, 5.26 xERA, 5.53 FIP, and 16.2% strikeout rate. Oh, and he's also surrendering a whopping 2.03 homers per nine innings. Yikes.

Folty's numbers against opposite-handed hitters are somehow much, much worse. Lefties have tagged him for a 7.44 FIP, .328 average, 1.030 OPS, .433 wOBA, and 2.97 dingers per nine. He's also managed a mere 13.6% strikeout rate and 1.71 WHIP in that split. That brings us to Tony Kemp.

Kemp could potentially bat leadoff for the Oakland Athletics versus a righty, and that would be a big boost to his already-hot bat. Over his last 32 games (116 plate appearances), Kemp has a .312 average, .971 OPS, 21 runs scored, 12 extra-base hits, 16 RBI, and 19 free passes to just 12 punchouts. Sign me up.

Keston Hiura, 1B/2B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,500)

Given Keston Hiura's early-season form, writing him up as a recommended play was not something I expected to do anytime soon, but here we are. At a salary of $2,500, riding the hot hand is far from the worst idea.

In 20 plate appearances since being recalled from the minors for the second time this season, Hiura has amassed three homers, five runs scored, nine RBI, and a 1.341 OPS. Granted, the sample size is tiny, but if it was any larger, he wouldn't be available for a salary this low. Since his call-up, Hiura has a hard-hit percentage of 53.8%, which would rank 12th in the league over a full season. Considering that he was at 33.9% in 122 plate appearances prior to getting sent down, this form is certainly encouraging.

What's also encouraging for the Milwaukee Brewers' first baseman is the fact that he's going up against Zach Davies. Despite throwing six no-hit innings his last time out, Davies' 5.70 SIERA is the worst among this slate's starting pitchers. His 14.2% strikeout rate bodes well for a hitter like Hiura, who tends to whiff in bunches.

Amed Rosario, SS/OF, Cleveland Indians ($2,600)

According to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, the Cleveland Indians' 5.41 implied run total ranks fifth-highest on tonight's slate, so getting some exposure to them is a good idea.

Cleveland will be matched up with Detroit Tigers righty Jose Urena, who sports a 6.00 ERA, 5.36 xERA, and 5.35 SIERA in 2021. Through a nice 69 innings, the 29-year-old has garnered a 13.2% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, and 1.65 WHIP. Urena has limited opponents to 0.91 dingers per nine frames this campaign, though considering he was at 1.40 through 108 innings from 2019-2020, that number is likely unsustainable.

Amed Rosario is a player who could benefit from this matchup. Over his last 47 games, Rosario has a .313 average, .359 on-base percentage, 30 runs, 12 extra-base hits, 19 RBI, and 7 steals.

Myles Straw, OF, Houston Astros ($2,400)

Writing this column without mentioning a player from the Houston Astros feels like a sin. The Baltimore Orioles will be going with a bullpen game versus Houston tonight, and that bodes well for the league's best offense.

On the season, Baltimore's 4.95 'pen ERA ranks fifth-worst in the majors, and their 1.31 homers per nine is eighth-worst.

As per usual, most of Houston's lineup will cost you $3,000 or more, but Myles Straw stands out as a top value play. Throughout his last 29 games (118 trips to the plate), Straw has garnered a .343 average, .866 OPS, 20 runs scored, 11 RBI, 6 steals, and an 11.0% walk rate (compared to a 15.3% K rate). He's a worthy inclusion in any Houston stacks.