MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 6/23/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Hunter Greene | 9.0 | 5.27 | 43.1% | 27.8% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| ATL | Alex Wood | 9.5 | 5.18 | 41.6% | 26.5% | 15.3% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| MIN | Zach Plesac | 9.5 | 5.07 | 39.6% | 24.8% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| CHW | Dean Kremer | 9.0 | 4.92 | 37.0% | 22.6% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| STL | Jason Alexander | 9.5 | 4.79 | 34.7% | 20.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| MIL | Dakota Hudson | 9.5 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| MIA | Kyle Freeland | 8.5 | 4.50 | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| CLE | Devin Smeltzer | 9.5 | 4.43 | 28.5% | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| NYY | Framber Valdez | 8.5 | 4.41 | 28.2% | 15.8% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| SF | Kyle Wright | 9.5 | 4.32 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| CHC | Jose Quintana | 8.5 | 4.29 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| PIT | Justin Steele | 8.5 | 4.21 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| HOU | Jameson Taillon | 8.5 | 4.09 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| BAL | Johnny Cueto | 9.0 | 4.08 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| SD | Ranger Suarez | 7.5 | 4.06 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| COL | Braxton Garrett | 8.5 | 4.00 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| CIN | Clayton Kershaw | 9.0 | 3.73 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| SEA | Frankie Montas | 7.0 | 3.68 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| PHI | Joe Musgrove | 7.5 | 3.44 | 13.5% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| OAK | Robbie Ray | 7.0 | 3.32 | 12.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | PHI | 7.3 | 93.3% | 85.3% | 73.6% | 59.4% | 44.6% | 31.1% | 20.1% |
| Frankie Montas | SEA | 6.3 | 87.2% | 75.1% | 59.8% | 43.9% | 29.5% | 18.3% | 10.5% |
| Kyle Wright | SF | 6.0 | 84.8% | 71.4% | 55.3% | 39.2% | 25.5% | 15.2% | 8.3% |
| Robbie Ray | OAK | 5.9 | 84.2% | 70.4% | 54.1% | 38.1% | 24.5% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | CIN | 5.5 | 80.2% | 64.7% | 47.6% | 31.9% | 19.4% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| Framber Valdez | NYY | 5.5 | 79.9% | 64.4% | 47.3% | 31.6% | 19.2% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
| Johnny Cueto | BAL | 5.3 | 77.7% | 61.4% | 44.0% | 28.6% | 16.9% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Hunter Greene | LAD | 5.3 | 77.3% | 60.9% | 43.5% | 28.1% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Alex Wood | ATL | 5.1 | 74.2% | 56.8% | 39.3% | 24.5% | 13.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| Ranger Suarez | SD | 5.0 | 72.8% | 55.1% | 37.5% | 23.1% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| Jameson Taillon | HOU | 4.9 | 71.5% | 53.5% | 35.9% | 21.8% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| Jose Quintana | CHC | 4.4 | 64.4% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Braxton Garrett | COL | 4.3 | 63.0% | 43.7% | 27.0% | 14.9% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Jason Alexander | STL | 4.3 | 62.5% | 43.1% | 26.5% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Kyle Freeland | MIA | 4.2 | 60.6% | 41.2% | 24.8% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Justin Steele | PIT | 4.2 | 60.6% | 41.2% | 24.8% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Dakota Hudson | MIL | 4.1 | 59.0% | 39.5% | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Devin Smeltzer | CLE | 4.0 | 55.9% | 36.3% | 20.9% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Zach Plesac | MIN | 4.0 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 20.7% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Dean Kremer | CHW | 3.5 | 46.3% | 27.5% | 14.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Platoon? | HR Park Factor |
Opp Pitcher |
HR Probability |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | MIN | No | 98 | Zach Plesac | 22.5% | +344 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 111 | Hunter Greene | 22.5% | +345 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 111 | Hunter Greene | 21.9% | +356 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 109 | Jameson Taillon | 21.4% | +367 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 21.1% | +374 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 21.1% | +374 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 103 | Jason Alexander | 20.8% | +381 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | Yes | 103 | Framber Valdez | 20.7% | +384 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | Yes | 103 | Framber Valdez | 20.7% | +384 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 111 | Johnny Cueto | 20.5% | +387 |
| Evan Longoria | SF | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 19.9% | +403 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | Yes | 97 | Alex Wood | 19.2% | +421 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 103 | Jason Alexander | 19.1% | +424 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 92 | Justin Steele | 19.0% | +427 |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | Yes | 111 | Clayton Kershaw | 18.6% | +437 |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | Yes | 99 | Zach Plesac | 18.3% | +447 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 98 | Devin Smeltzer | 18.1% | +451 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 96 | Joe Musgrove | 18.1% | +453 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 111 | Johnny Cueto | 18.0% | +455 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | No | 99 | Devin Smeltzer | 17.9% | +458 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 17.7% | +465 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 17.7% | +465 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 17.7% | +465 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 113 | Hunter Greene | 17.6% | +469 |
| Adam Duvall | ATL | Yes | 97 | Alex Wood | 17.4% | +475 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Yes | 95 | Joe Musgrove | 17.1% | +484 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 17.1% | +486 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | No | 111 | Hunter Greene | 17.0% | +487 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 113 | Hunter Greene | 16.9% | +492 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 113 | Hunter Greene | 16.9% | +492 |
| Brandon Belt | SF | Yes | 100 | Kyle Wright | 16.6% | +503 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 111 | Hunter Greene | 16.3% | +512 |
| Franmil Reyes | CLE | Yes | 98 | Devin Smeltzer | 16.3% | +515 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | 94 | Frankie Montas | 16.1% | +522 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 16.0% | +523 |
| Luke Voit | SD | Yes | 96 | Ranger Suarez | 16.0% | +526 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 100 | Kyle Wright | 16.0% | +527 |
| Seby Zavala | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 15.7% | +535 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 15.7% | +535 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 109 | Jameson Taillon | 15.7% | +536 |
| Taylor Trammell | SEA | Yes | 92 | Frankie Montas | 15.5% | +544 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | Yes | 97 | Alex Wood | 15.5% | +547 |
| Jazz Chisholm | MIA | No | 92 | Kyle Freeland | 15.4% | +548 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 15.4% | +550 |
| Juan Yepez | STL | No | 103 | Jason Alexander | 15.4% | +550 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 95 | Joe Musgrove | 15.3% | +553 |
| Alex Kirilloff | MIN | Yes | 99 | Zach Plesac | 15.2% | +559 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 15.2% | +559 |
| Jesus Aguilar | MIA | Yes | 90 | Kyle Freeland | 15.2% | +559 |
| Chad Pinder | OAK | Yes | 94 | Robbie Ray | 15.1% | +563 |
| Justin Upton | SEA | No | 94 | Frankie Montas | 14.9% | +572 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | No | 100 | Alex Wood | 14.9% | +572 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | 101 | Dakota Hudson | 14.8% | +577 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | 96 | Joe Musgrove | 14.5% | +589 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | Yes | 94 | Robbie Ray | 14.4% | +594 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | No | 92 | Braxton Garrett | 14.4% | +594 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | No | 94 | Frankie Montas | 14.3% | +601 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | No | 98 | Zach Plesac | 14.1% | +608 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | Yes | 97 | Alex Wood | 14.1% | +609 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 101 | Jason Alexander | 14.1% | +610 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 14.0% | +612 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 100 | Kyle Wright | 14.0% | +616 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 92 | Frankie Montas | 13.7% | +632 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | 101 | Dakota Hudson | 13.4% | +647 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | Yes | 103 | Framber Valdez | 13.4% | +648 |
| Jorge Soler | MIA | Yes | 90 | Kyle Freeland | 13.3% | +655 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 111 | Johnny Cueto | 12.9% | +672 |
| P.J. Higgins | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 12.8% | +680 |
| Joey Votto | CIN | No | 113 | Clayton Kershaw | 12.6% | +692 |
| Manny Machado | SD | Yes | 96 | Ranger Suarez | 12.6% | +694 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | No | 92 | Braxton Garrett | 12.3% | +715 |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 12.2% | +720 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | Yes | 97 | Alex Wood | 12.0% | +736 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | Yes | 101 | Jason Alexander | 11.9% | +737 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | Yes | 103 | Framber Valdez | 11.8% | +746 |
| Jesus Sanchez | MIA | No | 92 | Kyle Freeland | 11.7% | +754 |
| Michael Chavis | PIT | Yes | 92 | Justin Steele | 11.4% | +775 |
| Owen Miller | CLE | Yes | 98 | Devin Smeltzer | 11.3% | +783 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | Yes | 97 | Alex Wood | 11.2% | +791 |
| Brian Serven | COL | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 11.2% | +792 |
| Tyrone Taylor | MIL | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 11.2% | +796 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | Yes | 103 | Framber Valdez | 11.0% | +807 |
| Jonah Bride | OAK | Yes | 94 | Robbie Ray | 10.9% | +816 |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | Yes | 111 | Clayton Kershaw | 10.9% | +816 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | No | 109 | Framber Valdez | 10.9% | +817 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | No | 98 | Zach Plesac | 10.7% | +836 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | No | 98 | Zach Plesac | 10.7% | +836 |
| Eddy Alvarez | LAD | Yes | 113 | Hunter Greene | 10.7% | +837 |
| Danny Mendick | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 10.7% | +837 |
| Jake Burger | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 10.7% | +837 |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 10.5% | +852 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 10.5% | +852 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | Yes | 90 | Kyle Freeland | 10.5% | +852 |
| Sheldon Neuse | OAK | Yes | 94 | Robbie Ray | 10.2% | +883 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | Yes | 111 | Clayton Kershaw | 10.0% | +897 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | No | 92 | Robbie Ray | 10.0% | +902 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 9.9% | +912 |
| Connor Joe | COL | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 9.8% | +921 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | 101 | Dakota Hudson | 9.7% | +935 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | No | 95 | Justin Steele | 9.7% | +936 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 9.6% | +938 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 9.6% | +938 |
| Yu Chang | PIT | Yes | 92 | Justin Steele | 9.2% | +983 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | CIN | Yes | 111 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.1% | +995 |
| Adam Engel | CHW | No | 106 | Dean Kremer | 9.1% | +1002 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | Yes | 90 | Kyle Freeland | 9.1% | +1004 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 101 | Jason Alexander | 8.9% | +1027 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 8.8% | +1031 |
| Jorge Alfaro | SD | Yes | 96 | Ranger Suarez | 8.8% | +1035 |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | Yes | 100 | Kyle Wright | 8.8% | +1038 |
| Christian Bethancourt | OAK | Yes | 94 | Robbie Ray | 8.6% | +1057 |
| Tyler Nevin | BAL | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 8.2% | +1113 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | Yes | 98 | Devin Smeltzer | 8.2% | +1126 |
| Gavin Lux | LAD | Yes | 113 | Hunter Greene | 8.0% | +1147 |
| Max Kepler | MIN | Yes | 99 | Zach Plesac | 7.9% | +1163 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | Yes | 94 | Robbie Ray | 7.9% | +1174 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 7.7% | +1199 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | Yes | 90 | Kyle Freeland | 7.5% | +1225 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 7.4% | +1251 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | Yes | 98 | Devin Smeltzer | 7.3% | +1266 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | Yes | 111 | Clayton Kershaw | 7.3% | +1277 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | 103 | Dakota Hudson | 7.2% | +1287 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 7.2% | +1287 |
| Tommy La Stella | SF | Yes | 100 | Kyle Wright | 7.2% | +1295 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | No | 95 | Ranger Suarez | 7.1% | +1306 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | No | 95 | Ranger Suarez | 7.1% | +1306 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 6.9% | +1348 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 6.9% | +1348 |
| Didi Gregorius | PHI | Yes | 95 | Joe Musgrove | 6.8% | +1363 |
| Aaron Hicks | NYY | Yes | 103 | Framber Valdez | 6.8% | +1376 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | Yes | 103 | Framber Valdez | 6.8% | +1376 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | Yes | 90 | Braxton Garrett | 6.8% | +1377 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 6.5% | +1428 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | Yes | 98 | Devin Smeltzer | 6.5% | +1445 |
| Ernie Clement | CLE | Yes | 98 | Devin Smeltzer | 6.5% | +1445 |
| Hoy Park | PIT | No | 95 | Justin Steele | 6.4% | +1450 |
| Aledmys Diaz | HOU | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 6.4% | +1469 |
| Harrison Bader | STL | No | 103 | Jason Alexander | 6.4% | +1469 |
| Jose Siri | HOU | No | 103 | Jameson Taillon | 6.4% | +1469 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 96 | Ranger Suarez | 6.3% | +1475 |
| Austin Nola | SD | Yes | 96 | Ranger Suarez | 6.3% | +1475 |
| Luis Arraez | MIN | Yes | 99 | Zach Plesac | 6.3% | +1494 |
| Yan Gomes | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 6.1% | +1539 |
| Jonathan Villar | CHC | Yes | 92 | Jose Quintana | 6.1% | +1539 |
