MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/23/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+285)/Trea Turner To Hit a Home Run (+245)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best matchups on the slate for home runs.
There are several Dodgers who are worth considering for a home run prop today, and it's no surprise to see them with a slate-high 5.25 implied run total.
Both Will Smith and Trea Turner are among my favorites for a homer, but with this being a day game after a night game, there's a chance either one of them could be out of the lineup. If they are both out, Freddie Freeman (+245) and Max Muncy (+250) are both great options, as well.
LA is going up against Hunter Greene, who is allowing a .399 wOBA, .612 SLG, 4.08 xFIP, 3.73 HR/9, 55.6% fly-ball rate, and 38.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. This is an absolute dream matchup for the righties on the Dodgers, especially since this game is in Cincinnati, which is the second-best hitter's park.
Smith comes in with a 43.4% fly-ball rate, 35.2% hard-contact rate, 111 wRC+, and .167 ISO versus righties this season. Turner owns a 31.4% fly-ball rate, 30.8% hard-contact rate, 136 wRC+, and .163 ISO versus righties this season. I also like adding Turner To Record an RBI (+105) and Smith To Record an RBI (+115).
Austin Riley To Record an RBI (+120)
The Atlanta Braves have a juicy 4.87 implied run total and are in a spot to flex their offense.
It's over 90 degrees with the wind blowing out in Atlanta for today's game, giving us an absolute dream hitting environment. This creates a spot where we should see plenty of offense, and that points me to Austin Riley, who normally hits smack in the middle of the Braves' lineup. He wasn't in the lineup last night, so he should be back today in what is a great matchup versus Alex Wood.
All things considered, Wood is a fine pitcher who doesn't give up a ton of home runs -- only 0.92 HR/9 to righties -- but he gets BABIP'd to death. He has a .356 BABIP versus righties this season along with allowing a .416 SLG and posting a 21.2% strikeout rate. He gets beat when things turn into a hit parade and can't shut down the opposing lineup.
That could certainly happen today versus the Braves, and that puts Riley in a great spot to cash in on his RBI prop. Riley comes in with a 175 wRC+, .338 ISO, .428 wOBA, 39.1% fly-ball rate, and 54.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. This is an elite matchup for him, so I have to add Riley 2+ RBIs (+410), as well.
