MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/5/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Yankees Moneyline (-144): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 7.5 (-110): 5-Star Rating Out of 5
Glenn Otto and Domingo German are pitching in this one. Our model has a strong lean on the over and is also more into the favored New York Yankees than oddsmakers are.
Otto hasn't been good this year, pitching to a 4.86 SIERA, 18.1% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. He permitted a .342 wOBA in September, and he's given up a 40.5% fly-ball rate in the second half. Nothing in his profile says he's likely to keep the Yankees' offense quiet, and we have New York plating 5.92 runs.
If the Yanks push for six runs, then we barely need anything from the Texas Rangers' bats to get this game to the over. They should have some success against German.
German's 3.31 ERA looks good, but he's been pretty lucky. His SIERA is 4.35, and his xFIP is 4.65. German sports a lowly 18.6% strikeout rate. He's getting by thanks to a .251 BABIP and 10.2% homer-to-fly-ball rate, both of which are career-low marks. We have Texas scoring 4.45 runs.
With the total, we project 10.37 runs to come across -- nearly three runs over this 7.5-run over/under. We have the over cashing 72.3% of the time and rate it as a five-star play (five-unit recommendation).
We also see some value on the Yankees to win. The -144 moneyline implies win odds of 59.0%. We think New York comes out on top 63.4% of the time.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Reds Moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Two blah pitchers and two poor teams wrap up their 2022 seasons today in Cincy.
The Chicago Cubs are turning to righty Adrian Sampson. Through 101 2/3 innings this year, Sampson has a 4.49 SIERA and 16.9% strikeout rate. If not for a lowly 8.6% homer-to-fly-ball rate, which is well below his career average of 15.0%, Sampson's numbers would look even worse. While the Cincinnati Reds' offense is very pedestrian, Sampson -- owner of a 39.7% fly-ball rate -- isn't likely to find Great American Ball Park all that welcoming.
Rookie Graham Ashcraft is pitching for the Reds. Ashcraft registered a pretty nice minor-league campaign in 2021. He hasn't been nearly as good this year in his jump to The Show, posting a 15.3% strikeout rate in 99 2/3 MLB frames. The one glaring positive in his profile is a 54.6% ground-ball rate, which has helped him limit dingers to 0.90 per nine.
Despite the Reds being priced as +108 underdogs, our algorithm has them winning this game 53.9% of the time. Taking Cincy on the moneyline is a two-star bet.
