MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 6/14/23: 3 Teams Positioned to Rebound From Losses Last Night
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Blue Jays ML (-110)
Last night just wasn't the Blue Jays' night.
The otherwise-reliable Chris Bassitt was shelled, but Jose Berrios presents a great opportunity for us to get back on the horse tonight. Berrios has rebounded from a 2022 campaign where he was one of the worst starters in baseball to post a solid 4.15 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) -- a clip buoyed by a 36.8% flyball rate as well as 33.0% hard-hit rate allowed that's more than 10 percentage points lower than a year ago.
He'll face Kyle Bradish of the Orioles, and Bradish is quite similar. Also a righty, Bradish has amassed a nearly identical 4.13 SIERA, but his flyball rate (34.2%) and hard-hit rate allowed (45.6%) are both higher. All things considered, it's pretty even, but their opposing offenses aren't.
Since May 1st, Toronto leads the league in wRC+ against righties (119). While Baltimore (106 wRC+) is still a quality foe in the split, they're not nearly as potent. The pick 'em price here feels like a gift.
New York Yankees at New York Mets
Mets ML (-110)
This is such a classic "wise guy" betting line. On paper, Gerrit Cole has dominated, and Justin Verlander has struggled, but here we are in a pick 'em with action pointing toward the Yankees.
Cole's 2.84 ERA just isn't well-supported by his peripherals. He's got a 3.96 SIERA that is inflated by a flyball rate (39.6%) and hard-hit rate allowed (39.8%) that are both higher than you would hope to see from a top-tier ace. He's also not missing as many bats (10.8% swinging-strike rate) as his 25.8% strikeout rate would lead you to believe.
Holding a 4.85 ERA that doesn't seem close to Cole's, Verlander's 4.61 SIERA, 40.8% flyball rate, and 43.8% hard-hit rate allowed also become a bit more palatable with Cole's profile looking that way. Again, we've got a fairly even pitching matchup even if it doesn't seem that way at first glance.
However, these two offenses -- both down key stars -- aren't very close. The Mets' active roster still has a modest 101 wRC+ in this split without Pete Alonso, and the Yankees' has plummeted to 91 wRC+ without Aaron Judge.
Last night's flood of offense from the shorthanded Yanks could have been a blip on the radar. I'm backing the Mets tonight.
Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals
Royals ML (-104)
Quietly, Daniel Lynch is finally fulfilling some of his upside for the Royals.
Lynch's career-best 4.41 ERA might actually be a tad unlucky going by his 4.17 SIERA. He's also capitalized on his great stuff with a career-high 14.3% strikeout rate, and Lynch's 0.55 HR/9 allowed has been a stark change from prior seasons.
He's a short home underdog to Ben Lively and the Reds tonight, and I just don't have the same faith in Lively that I do Lynch. Lively is still permitting 1.98 HR/9, and his 9.9% swinging-strike rate likely shows his high rate of punchouts (24.8%) won't be here forever.
Plus, after these two starters depart, Kansas City's bullpen (4.33 xFIP) has been a lot better than the Reds' (4.51; sixth-worst in MLB) to this point.
Since calling up Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati has become one of the most public teams in the MLB betting landscape, and today is not much different. Kansas City came up just short yesterday, but a better hurler than Jordan Lyles should help get them over the hump.
