NASCAR Betting Guide: NOCO 400

Sometimes, the sportsbooks have our backs. It may not have been intentional... but it happened this week.

When I ran my first set of simulations for the NOCO 400 at Martinsville, I didn't see much I liked compared to the NASCAR odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. It was a combination of the typical hold we pay combined with the fact that my model and FanDuel's odds were largely in agreement.

Thus, I held off and didn't place any outrights. Based on the initial entry list, there wasn't enough value for me to take the plunge.

Then on Wednesday, everything got shaken up.

Chase Elliott announced he will return from a six-race absence due to a broken leg this weekend, replacing Josh Berry. Elliott is one of the sport's best drivers, and he's on the sport's top team. Adding him in the mix over Berry lowered everybody's win odds in a non-negligible way.

If I had bet an outright earlier in the week, the odds that driver would still be a value after adding Elliott are low. So, the sportsbooks accidentally saved me a bad bet, and for that, I am appreciative.

The one downside is that due to Elliott's presence, there just isn't much value to be had. Not many guys have lengthened after Elliott's addition, so I've got no outrights I want to place now, either.

There are some props that I'm fine with, though, and we do have practice coming up on Saturday. So let's dabble in the waters now with two bets I like, and we can circle back later to add more post-practice.

Aric Almirola to Finish Top 10 (+230)

(UPDATE: Almirola has since shortened to -130 to finish in the top 10. The implied odds there are 56.5% while my model now has him at 49.2%. So if you didn't get Almirola earlier in the week, I'd pass now.)

It's a short, flat track, which means I'm -1500 to show value on Aric Almirola's top-10 odds. Even in a week slim on value, here we are again.

I've got Almirola's top-10 odds at 36.9%, up from 30.3% implied at +230. He's one of just two drivers showing value in this market for the week. The other is his teammate, Kevin Harvick (-140), but Martinsville tends to be one of Harvick's worst tracks. Thus, we're down to just Almirola.

Among the short, flat tracks, Martinsville isn't Almirola's best, either. He has just seven career top-10s in 28 trips here and one top-five.

Things have been much rosier since he joined Stewart-Haas Racing, though. In 10 Martinsville trips with the team, Almirola has five top-10s, one of which came last spring. He has had a top-12 average running position in four of the past five races here.

So, no, this isn't fully the auto-bet Almirola often can be on this track type. But his track record here is still good, and his odds aren't short. There's enough here for me to pull the trigger before practice.

Ross Chastain Over Kyle Busch (+102)

(UPDATE: This matchup is no longer posted at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you find it elsewhere, my model does still like Chastain, though its enthusiasm around him has slipped after mediocre lap averages in practice and an issue in qualifying. With that said, my model does show value in Chastain's top-10 odds at +145 -- 46.2% for me versus 40.8% implied -- so you can bet Chastain via that route if you are itching for exposure.)

Similar to Almirola, you don't typically think of Martinsville as a great spot for Ross Chastain. Last year was much better for him, though, and with Kyle Busch getting off to a slow start on the short, flats, I think this is a good value.

Chastain finished top-five in both Martinsville races last year, his first two with Trackhouse Racing. Granted, one of them required a psychopath move that is no longer legal, but his 10th-place average running position there shows it wasn't an entirely fluky finish.

As for Busch, his first two races at Richard Childress Racing on short, flat tracks have been underwhelming. He had a 14th-place average running position in both Phoenix and Richmond, and his best finish is eighth. Chastain's average running positions have been ninth and fifth at those races.

Martinsville's a different beast, so Busch could bounce back to life. But with form on relevant tracks favoring Chastain, he's a value here by my model.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Kyle Larson to Win (+1200); Larson to Podium (+340); Larson to Finish Top 10 (-195)

After qualifying, I've got value on Kyle Larson across the board, so we're going to ladder this thing up and try to benefit from his being undervalued.

William Byron deserves to be the favorite; my model has him at 15.0% to win. But Larson is still second at 11.2% despite qualifying 19th. He's there due to quality single-lap speed and 10-lap averages after you adjust for changes in the track between Groups A and B. With Larson's implied odds at just 7.7%, he's a big value to win.

But I've got value on him in the other categories, too. To podium, he's 30.7% in my model versus 22.7% implied, and I've got his top-10 odds at 71.2% versus 66.1% implied.

As a result, I'm going to ladder this bet, putting the largest percentage on his top-10 market, followed by the podium and outright to give myself upside should Larson be able to top his teammate. You'll want to go with smaller unit sizes so that you're not overexposed to one driver, but I believe enthusiasm is warranted at these numbers.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+200)

Alex Bowman didn't have elite top-end speed in either practice or qualifying and will start 23rd. But seeing his top-10 odds slip this far makes him a value despite that.

It's not as if Bowman was bad in practice, either. After adjusting for differences in the track between Groups A and B, Bowman was 19th in single-lap speed and 15th in 10-lap average. He was firmly fine.

That's good enough where it shouldn't override our views of Bowman's form. He finished inside the top 10 in both Richmond and Phoenix, and his speed says neither of those finishes were super fluky.

Although Martinsville has never been Bowman's best track, it's certainly not a bad one. He won here in the fall of 2021 and has three top-10s across five races here the past three years. My model has Bowman's top-10 odds at 38.5%, up from 33.3% implied.