FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 1/8/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's 10-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

Point Guard

While the point guard position is loaded with options at every tier, it is also full of questions marks -- Kyrie Irving ($10,100) sat out the last game due to personal reasons and did not fly with the team to Memphis, Russell Westbrook ($10,700) is questionable after suffering a dislocated finger, and De'Aaron Fox is also questionable after missing most of his last game with hamstring tightness.

The Boston Celtics will be down quite a few bodies due to injuries and contact tracing, which means Marcus Smart ($5,900) is very much in play. On the season, the Washington Wizards have been one of the most generous teams to opposing guards, according to FantasyPros. In fact, according to Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, the Wizards rank as the second-worst team against point guards and fifth-worst against shooting guards when adjusted for opponent. Smart would need 29.5 FanDuel points to achieve 5X value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary), and that's a number he's topped with ease in five of his last seven.

Speaking of a team with a lot of inactives, the Orlando Magic seem to have caught the injury bug, as well. The Magic will be down Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams, and they could very well be without Evan Fournier, too. That leaves their backcourt wide open for rookie Cole Anthony ($5,000). Anthony would need 25 FanDuel points for 5X, and while he's reached that only once this season, his workload in this contest should be his heaviest one yet. He's our model's second-best projected value at the position. With Kyrie likely out again, numberFire's algorithm sees Chris Chiozza ($3,600) as the best value at point guard. In two games sans Irving, Chiozza has dropped 18.2 and 24.6 fantasy points -- he would need just 18 to achieve 5X value at his salary.

The New York Knicks are another team dealing with injuries, and one of the primary beneficiaries has been Elfrid Payton ($5,500). Payton has recorded fewer than 29.1 FanDuel points just once in his last six games, and he'd need only 27.5 to return adequate value tonight. His opponent, the Oklahoma City Thunder, has ceded the eighth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Finally, there are two veterans at opposite salary-tiers that our model is high on -- Kyle Lowry ($7,700) and Patrick Beverley ($3,800). Both players have matchups against teams that are bottom-five against the position when adjusted for opponent.

Shooting Guard

No Kevin Durant, no Kyrie, no Spencer Dinwiddie -- basically, lock in Caris LeVert ($6,800). In 135.8 minutes without those three on the court this season, LeVert has a laughably high 37.9% usage rate to go with a 1.49 FanDuel-points-per-minute average. In two full games with those three out, LeVert has posted 61.3 and 50.4 FanDuel points. Fade him at your own risk.

I mentioned above how bad Washington has been against guards, and tonight we get the lucky draw of Jaylen Brown ($8,000) being listed at shooting guard on FanDuel. Fret not, Washington is bad against small forwards (Brown's true position), as well. Brown, who needs just 40 FanDuel points for 5X, has topped 49 in four of his nine games this season. Our model projects Brown for 42.4 tonight -- still an excellent return.

If De'Aaron Fox is out for the Sacramento Kings, Buddy Hield ($5,200) could finally make true on his always-lofty projections. numberFire's algorithm has Hield projected as the best value at the position. That said, the chalky play if Fox sits will likely be Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400), and rightfully so. The rookie dropped 46.4 FanDuel points with Fox missing most of the last game and could be in for a similar performance tonight.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,300) needs 26.5 for 5X tonight, and he's averaged 31.2 over his last three -- our model forecasts a 28.8-point outing from him. On the high-end side of things, our model prefers Paul George ($8,800) to most of the other options. George and Brown are the only shooting guards with salaries higher than LeVert's who our model projects to attain greater than 5X value.

This isn't a night to go bargain-bin shopping at shooting guard, but if you are inclined to do so, Reggie Bullock ($3,600) could be the way to go -- if he's active. Just $100 above the minimum, Bullock would only need to accrue just 18 points for 5X -- he's topped 21 in three of his last five.

Small Forward

One of the higher-salaried small forwards is also one of our model's top projected values -- and that's Jayson Tatum ($9,400). The Celtics currently have the highest implied total on the slate by nearly three points, so you don't have to worry about over-exposure. Meanwhile, Tatum is bound to see a heavier-than-usual role with Boston's thin roster tonight, and this is a guy who has exceeded 50 FanDuel points in three of his last six outings. numberFire's algorithm projects him for 51.5 tonight.

Without Kyrie and KD on the court last night, Joe Harris ($4,900) exploded for 43.2 fantasy points -- that's an insane ceiling for a player with a salary under $5K. Harris, who would need 24.5 FanDuel points for 5X, has topped 30 in four of his last six efforts. If Evan Fournier ($5,300) does return tonight, our model projects him to be the third-best value at the position. With all of Orlando's backcourt injuries, Fournier would likely see high volume if he were active.

Our model's top-projected value is Josh Jackson ($5,100), who is probable to suit up tonight. Jackson posted more than 30 FanDuel points in three of his six games before his two-game absence.

In the mid-range, we project both Khris Middleton ($7,400) and RJ Barrett ($6,500) to exceed 5.1X value.

Power Forward

Our model's top-projected scorer on the entire slate is Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200). The two-time MVP's ceiling is well-known, but Giannis has eclipsed 56 FanDuel points (what he needs for 5X) in four of his last six. Not that it matters much, but the Utah Jazz are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

Giannis isn't the only stud at power forward tonight -- we also get Anthony Davis ($10,400). Davis is always worthy of consideration, but tonight, you have to take into account the fact that he's got a superb matchup. AD is facing a Chicago Bulls team that's dead last against power forwards and third-worst against centers when adjusting for competition. Our model has Davis projected for just 1.8 fewer points than Giannis, and AD comes in at an $800 discount.

The best matchup of the night goes to Zion Williamson ($7,800), who faces a Charlotte Hornets team that has allowed the most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Zion needs 39 fantasy points to reach 5X, and he's scored 42 or more in four of his last seven games.

Jae Crowder ($4,400) is one of those guys who can easily be a lineup-winner or lineup-killer. Crowder has exceeded 27 fantasy points in four of his last seven games (he needs 22 for 5X), but he's also totaled fewer than 13 in each of the other three. Our model has him as more of a lineup-winner tonight, projecting him as the second-best value at the position.

For a bit more of your salary, you can get up to either Brandon Clarke ($5,100) or Bobby Portis ($5,000). Clarke's ceiling isn't anything to write home about, though he has recorded at least 26.8 fantasy points in four of his last six games -- he needs 25.5 for 5X. Meanwhile, Portis seems to be grabbing Milwaukee's center position by the horns. The 25-year-old has put up 32 or more FanDuel points four times in his last seven games, and he's seen at least 25 minutes of action five times during that stretch.

Center

In order to be able to afford a lineup full of studs, you'll need to save salary somewhere, and you can do that at center. Our model projects Daniel Theis ($4,300) to be the best point-per-dollar value on the entire slate. With Robert Williams, Grant Williams, and Tristan Thompson all out for Boston, Theis is bound to get all the run he can handle. That should play well against a Wizards team that's surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

If you feel the need to pay up at the position, Nikola Vucevic ($8,800) faces a Houston Rockets defense that surrenders the fourth-most FanDuel points to opposing centers this season. Vucevic has posted at least 47.6 in four of his last seven contests.