FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 3/16/21

The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's seven-game slate, which locks at 7:30 PM Eastern.

All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.

Slate Overview

This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.

Teams are sorted by their implied total.

Point Guard

Stud

Trae Young ($9,000) - In my studs to target column, I outlined why Young is a solid play tonight. The matchup is absolutely delicious -- the Houston Rockets rank first of the 14 teams playing tonight in pace, and over their last 15 games, the Rockets have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. The 22-year-old Young eclipsed 40 FanDuel points in 24 of his 37 outings this season, including 21 outputs of 45.9-plus.

Other Studs to Consider (in order of preference):
Damian Lillard ($10,100) - C.J. McCollum's return might scare people off, but this is a good spot. New Orleans has allowed the most fantasy points to point guards in their last 15 games.
Ben Simmons ($8,200) - Averages 1.28 FanDuel points per minute with Joel Embiid off the court this season. The matchup is a tough one.

Value Play

Ricky Rubio ($5,200) - Jordan McLaughlin, Malik Beasley, and Jarrett Culver are likely to be out for the Minnesota Timberwolves, which puts Rubio in a great spot again. The veteran has averaged 30.7 FanDuel points over his last four games, with a low-water mark of 26.2 during that stretch. The matchup is not one to shy away from, as the Los Angeles Lakers have given up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to point guards over their last 15 outings. Rubio is numberFire's top-projected value at the position.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Jaylen Nowell ($4,500) - Has posted 21.5, 24.8, and 47.0 FanDuel points in his last three. Is less of a blowout risk than Rubio is.
Tomas Satoransky ($4,200) - Dropped 33.7 fantasy points on Sunday. Our model's second-best projected value at point guard.
Dennis Schroder ($6,200) - Prior to last night's dud, was averaging 35 FanDuel points in previous eight games without Anthony Davis in the lineup. Minnesota is dead last against point guards this season.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000) - Not only is SGA our model's top-projected scorer at shooting guard, but he's also numberFire's top point-per-dollar play at the position. Let's get this out of the way -- the matchup is not good. Over their last 15 games, the Chicago Bulls have allowed the fewest fantasy points to point guards and ninth-fewest to shooting guards. That said, there is plenty of reason for optimism. The Oklahoma City Thunder will be sans Al Horford and Darius Bazley, and that's in addition to Lu Dort being questionable. With Horford and Bazley off the court this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 1.31 FanDuel points per minute on a 33.8% usage rate, according to RotoGrinders.

Other Studs to Consider:
Victor Oladipo ($7,700) - John Wall, Eric Gordon, and David Nwaba are all out for Houston, Christian Wood is doubtful, and Danuel House Jr. and Ben McLemore are questionable. 'Dipo is averaging 42 FanDuel points over his last six games. Atlanta is 20th against two guards this season.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200) - Has topped 40 fantasy points in 11 of his last 17. Boston is 18th against the position over their last 15 contests.

Value Play

Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,700) - After exploding for 18 real-life points, 4 rebounds, 10 assists, and 38.8 FanDuel points last night, Horton-Tucker has now managed at least 22 fantasy points in four of his last six games. It's not a coincidence that his season-high in fantasy points came with Alex Caruso out, and the potential for him to be one of the top value plays at the position should continue tonight. The Timberwolves rank 19th against shooting guards this season, but they're down to 22nd over their last 15 games.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Anthony Edwards ($7,000) - Is averaging 38.1 fantasy points over his last seven and Minnesota is down a number of bodies in their rotation. Lakers are 18th against shooting guards this season.
Reggie Bullock ($3,500) - In play at the minimum salary. Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton, and Austin Rivers are all doubtful. Bullock has 17-plus fantasy points in five of his last seven, including 29.7 last night.
Immanuel Quickley ($5,200) - Should also benefit from New York's lack of available backcourt depth. Has 26.4 or more fantasy points in four of his last eight.

Small Forward

Stud

LeBron James ($10,400) - Among the 14 teams playing tonight, Minnesota plays at the second-fastest pace and ranks third-worst in defensive efficiency. In other words, it's a perfect matchup for LeBron to feast. Over their last 15 games, the Wolves have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. LeBron put up 54.1 FanDuel points in his last matchup against this squad, and he's our model's top-projected scorer tonight.

Other Stud to Consider:
Brandon Ingram ($7,700) - Has surpassed 40 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 15. However, Portland has been tough on small forwards this season.

Value Play

Kenyon Martin Jr. ($3,500) - Martin is the "free square" on tonight's slate. In his three games since rejoining the Rockets, he has averaged 30.6 minutes of action while recording 30.8, 37.3, and 39.5 FanDuel points. This is a player at the minimum salary. Atlanta is a mid-level defense against small forwards (17th, per numberFire's DvP tool), so this is not a matchup to shy away from.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,000) - Going with two Houston small forwards tonight is certainly in play. Porter Jr. has averaged 32.4 minutes and 37.2 FanDuel points in three games with the Rockets.
RJ Barrett ($5,700) - Has 29-plus fantasy points in six of his last seven, including 41.2 and 50.5 in his last two.
Josh Hart ($5,000) - Has 26.3 or more FanDuel points in 6 of his last 13 efforts. Our model's fourth-best projected value at the position.

Power Forward

Stud

Zion Williamson ($8,400) - A three-game scuffle led to a $600 drop in salary for Zion, and it could result in him being under-rostered. Zion has averaged only 32.7 fantasy points over his last three, but that's entirely due to the fact that the average margin entering the fourth quarter of those games was a whopping 28.7 points. With just a 2.0-point spread tonight, Williamson should get back to the form that had him posting more than 42 FanDuel points in 10 of his 11 games prior to the All-Star break.

Other Studs to Consider:
Tobias Harris ($7,800) - Has amassed 52.3 and 57.0 FanDuel points in two of his last three games without Embiid in the lineup. Leads Philadelphia with a 28.6% usage rate in that situation.
Julius Randle ($9,200) - Has trumped 51 fantasy points in five of his last eight games and will be taking on a Sixers team that won't have Embiid protecting the paint.

Value Play

Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,500) - The rookie has totaled 32.1 and 44.0 FanDuel points in two of his last three games while seeing at least 29.8 minutes in each contest. His role should remain strong with Horford and Bazley out for OKC. The Serbian also gets a tasty matchup as the Bulls are ceding the ninth-most fantasy points to power forwards over their last 15 games.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Tony Bradley ($3,500) - In the seven games that he has been active and Embiid has not, Bradley has averaged 21.2 FanDuel points per contest, including outputs of 25.8, 29.0, and 35.5.
Isaiah Roby ($4,700) - Is averaging 26.5 fantasy points per game in 11 outings without Horford in the lineup, including 7 outputs of 25.8-plus. Bulls are 22nd against power forwards and 28th versus centers in 2020-21.
Lauri Markkanen ($5,500) - Has amassed 28.2, 28.9, and 29.8 FanDuel points in his three games back and will face an OKC interior that's dead last against power forwards over their last 15 contests.

Center

Stud

Clint Capela ($8,300) - Capela is currently questionable, but if he suits up, he is undoubtedly worthy of consideration. The 26-year-old has eclipsed 47 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, and he'll be taking on a Houston team that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to centers over their last 15 games.

Other Studs to Consider:
Rudy Gobert ($8,800) - Has recorded more than 47 fantasy points in three of his last five. That said, Boston has been the fifth-stingiest against the position over their last 15.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) - Has topped 50 FanDuel points in 4 of his last 11. Lakers will be without Marc Gasol and AD in the interior.

Value Play

Justin Patton ($5,000) - As of writing, numberFire's algorithm is projecting Patton to be the top value on the slate -- by a mile. Patton has topped 25 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, so he should have an excellent shot at returning adequate value. He'd be an especially intriguing play if Capela can't suit up to face him.

Other Mid-Range and Value Options:
Moses Brown ($4,200) - Has put up 24.3, 24.4, and 24.8 FanDuel points in his last three. Chicago has allowed the second-most fantasy points to fives over their last 15 contests.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,600) - Minnesota has been better against centers as of late, but they still rank dead last against the position on the season. Harrell has accrued 37.7, 41.5, and 42.9 FanDuel points in his last three games without Gasol and AD in the lineup.