3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 11/16/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
D'Angelo Russell Over 2.5 Made Threes (+106)
D'Angelo Russell is due for an uptick in both his three-point percentage and his three-point attempt rate.
For the year, Russell owns a 46.9% three-point attempt rate. DARKO has him at an expected 49.6% three-point attempt rate. He's made just 32.9% of his three-pointers this season, his lowest clip since 2017. That's due to rebound as DARKO projects him to make 36.3% of his threes.
Russell went 4 for 5 from deep last time out, and he a great matchup tonight to have another good night from three. He's facing an Orlando Magic team that gives up a 43.1% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest. Orlando has been especially generous to point guards, surrendering 10.3 three-point tries per game to the position, the most in the league.
Our model projects Russell to make 2.7 threes on 7.9 attempts on Wednesday. With a +106 price on the over, that's the side I want to be on.
Dejounte Murray Under 1.5 Made Threes (+104)
On Monday, Dejounte Murray was facing a Milwaukee Bucks defense that doesn't give up many three-point attempts, and we cashed the under on his made threes prop. Today, Murray will see another defense that limits three-point shots, and we can attack the under on his made threes prop once more -- this time getting it at an even better price.
Murray is taking on the Boston Celtics. Boston is allowing a 35.4% three-point attempt rate, the fifth-lowest. The Celtics (18th in pace) are also a pace-down spot for the Hawks (6th).
As we laid out Monday, Murray just doesn't shoot much from beyond the arc. He hasn't taken more than five threes in a game in any of his previous four outings, and he's hit only three total treys in that span. It's not like he's due to start taking more threes, either, as his season-long three-point attempt rate of 30.3% is right in line with the 29.4% mark projected by DARKO.
We project Murray to nail 1.7 threes on 5.2 tries versus Boston. Given this prop's pricing -- +104 on the under and -132 on the over -- the under makes more sense.
Myles Turner Under 8.5 Rebonds (-104)
Myles Turner is averaging 8.7 boards per game this season, and over the past three games, he's pulled down an average of 11.0 rebounds per night. So why should you take the under at a line of 8.5 rebounds?
Turner isn't likely to keep rebounding at the clip he has been. Turner is snagging 14.5 rebounds per 100 possessions this season. For his career, he's at 11.5 rebounds per 100 possessions, and he was at 11.8 a campaign ago. DARKO projects him to be at 12.6 boards per 100 possessions this year. While Turner's rebound chances have gone up sans Domantas Sabonis -- 15.0 rebound chances per game in 2022-23, compared to 13.3 last season -- he's still due for some negative regression on the glass.
Turner is up against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. Charlotte (17th in pace) is a slow-down spot for the fast-paced Indiana Pacers (3rd). The Hornets are also giving up the 10th-fewest rebounds per night to power forwards (9.5), a position Turner is playing more of with Jalen Smith in the fold.
Our algorithm has Turner finishing with 7.7 rebounds in this one.
