NCAAF

College Football Betting Guide: Wednesday 11/2/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Nov 2nd, 2022
Our model likes Bowling Green to win tonight's game at home. But how should we bet the spread and total in that contest?

MACtion is back. Days without football are mostly gone.

Two more MAC games will take place on Wednesday, and our model has a super strong lean in each one. Here's what it thinks.

Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Northern Illinois Huskies

Over 56.5 (-115) - 4 Stars

We could see points in bunches tonight from Central Michigan and Northern Illinois.

Of course, the Chippewas have a sporty offense behind one of the top stars in all of college football. Lew Nichols III had 1,848 yards rushing last year, but he's stumbled to just 3.6 yards per carry so far. He could have more room rushing and/or receiving against the Huskies, who are 81st in yards per play allowed.

On offense, Northern Illinois has been much better. They're 56th in overall yards per play. Harrison Waylee and Antario Brown are already over 1,300 yards rushing as a duo.

This total isn't very high, and both of these defenses are bottom-25 schools in ESPN's SP+ defensive rankings. Our model expects this game to see at least 57 points a whopping 70.4% of the time. Against these 53.0% implied odds, there's plenty of value on the over.

Western Michigan Broncos at Bowling Green State Falcons

Bowling Green -5.5 (-105) - 2 Stars
Over 48.5 (-105) - 3 Stars

Western Michigan might be one of the worst teams in FBS. I think we can still bet the over, though.

Bowling Green's defense is the 11th-worst in FBS, per ESPN's SP+ ranks. They've had to score an average of 29.0 points per game in four wins, so their offense shouldn't be too challenged by WMU's 24th-worst defense.

The gap in this game -- and why numberFire recommends the BGSU spread -- is when the Broncos have the ball. Western Michigan is 126th in total yards per play, scoring just 20.8 points per game.

In what should be a moderately high-scoring game, our model expects Bowling Green to cover 58.3% of the time, and it expects the over to hit 62.6% of the time. Against 51.2% odds for each bet, we've got a thumbs up to back Bowling Green to cover and the over to win out.