Fantasy Football: 5 Running Backs With Major Touchdown Upside
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson is no sleeper, he's going to be drafted within the first couple rounds of your draft, and he's a safe bet for solid production. But he is also a guy who has scored double-digit touchdowns in every season of his career (with the obvious exception of his one-game 2014 season). Those touchdown numbers are no coincidence -- he has a great shot to do it again, and it would be no surprise if he led the league in rushing touchdowns this season.
Through two years with Mike Zimmer as head coach, the Minnesota Vikings have been incredibly run-heavy in goal line situations. In 2015, they had the third-lowest pass-run ratio on goal line snaps (from the 10 yard-line and in), and in 2014 -- with Adrian Peterson sidelined -- they still had the sixth-lowest ratio. Over those two seasons combined, they have been the second most run-heavy goal line team in the NFL, with a 0.61 pass-run ratio.
Peterson isn't at risk of having touchdowns vultured away either, as he should get the lion's share of the team's goal line work. In 2015 he ranked second in the league with 26 goal line carries, while Matt Asiata, who handled goal line duties when Peterson was out in 2014, saw only 2. Peterson also saw 20 goal line carries in 2013.
Peterson's touchdown rate on goal line carries isn't exceptional, at 27.66% over the last three years (just above the league average), but the fact that he is likely to see one of the biggest goal line workloads in the league leaves him with tremendous upside.