Fantasy Football: 5 Receivers Primed for Bounce-Back Seasons
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Dez Bryant has long been one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. From 2011 to 2014, his 50 receiving touchdowns were the most in the league, and 7 more than the next-highest receiver in Jordy Nelson.
Heading into the 2015 campaign, Bryant had come off three straight seasons with at least 1,200 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, a feat accomplished by only three other receivers since the merger in 1970. Those receivers? Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, and Terrell Owens. Yeah, dude was rightly in elite company.
numberFire's signature in-house metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), helps put into context just how good Bryant was from 2011 to 2014, and it makes a positive case for why Bryant should be back in the elite wide receiver conversation for the 2016 season.
NEP takes traditional box
score statistics like receiving yards and touchdowns and layers it with
additional context based on expected output determined by
down-and-distance data from similar historical in-game scenarios.
You
see, if a player reels in an 8-yard reception on a 3rd-and-10, it's
far less valuable than if he were to make that same play on a
3rd-and-4. One moves the chains, the other likely results in a punt. NEP accounts for that.
When it comes to Bryant's NEP numbers, they're pretty darn good.
| Season | Targets | Target Rank | Reception NEP | Reception NEP rank | Reception NEP per Target | Reception NEP per Target Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 104 | 29th of 32 | 92.39 | 17th of 32 | 0.89 | 5th of 32 |
| 2012 | 138 | 13th of 39 | 110.60 | 5th of 39 | 0.80 | 11th of 39 |
| 2013 | 159 | 8th of 37 | 107.91 | 14th of 37 | 0.68 | 20th of 37 |
| 2014 | 136 | 12th of 40 | 127.79 | 5th of 40 | 0.94 | 1st of 40 |
In
2011, 2012, and 2014, Bryant's Reception NEP rank among all wideouts
targeted over 100 times bested that of his rank among those same
wideouts in total targets. That means he was doing more with less, so
much so that he led the league in Reception NEP per target in 2014.
So, despite an ineffective, injury-plagued 2015 season, Bryant should be back at full health for 2016. In two preseason games he's already caught two touchdown passes, and his longtime quarterback, Tony Romo, is back at the helm.
You likely won't be able to get a discount on Bryant in your fantasy football draft -- his current average draft position (ADP) of 1.08 is identical to his ADP heading into the 2015 season -- but if your draft position is late in the first round, don't hesitate to grab him. Last season was an aberration, and Bryant is set to be back to his old ways.
