Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions

Over/Under: 51.0
Colts Implied Team Total: 27.25
Lions Implied Team Total: 23.75

What better place to start than with the game with the highest over/under on the slate?

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Price: $8,700

The presence of Dak Prescott as a minimum-priced quarterback will likely draw ownership off of the pricier quarterback options, such as Andrew Luck, which is one of many reasons to love Luck this week. Another would be Luck's career splits in games with at least a 51-point over/under, according to the Rotoviz game split app.

In 12 career games in predicted shootouts similar to this week's, Luck has seen his FanDuel points per game skyrocket from 22.77 to 28.17, fueled by his 2.67 passing touchdowns per game. In seven career 51-points over/under games that he has played at Lucas Oil Stadium, Luck has averaged 2.86 passing touchdowns and 29.75 FanDuel points.

Luck has also performed better when he has been at least a 3.5-point favorite throughout his career. Since 2013, Luck has averaged 1.62 more FanDuel points, 0.21 more touchdowns, and 22 more passing yards per game in 17 games as at least a 3.5-point favorite than in 22 games outside of those parameters.

Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Price: $5,500

With reports that Marvin Jones and Matthew Stafford have developed terrific chemistry and that Jones is emerging as Detroit's number-one receiver, the fact that he comes into this game as the fifth-most expensive receiver, sandwiched in between Anquan Boldin and Phillip Dorsett, is certainly something to exploit.

While Jones will certainly be one of the most highly-owned receivers on the slate, pairing him with Andrew Luck is a high-upside way to split the chalk that is proven to be highly correlated to fantasy success.

Also included in Raybon's article on stacking is each position's point averages and odds of scoring 25-plus FanDuel points when a quarterback scores 25-plus points. Unsurprisingly, the most highly-correlated player is that quarterback's number-one receiver, but perhaps not so predictably, the second-most highly correlated position (excluding opposing quarterbacks because FanDuel is a one-quarterback site) is the opposing team's number-one receiver. So, over the past three seasons, when a quarterback has scored at least 25 FanDuel points, the opposing team's number-one receiver has averaged 14.1 FanDuel points and reached the 25-point threshold 16.3 percent of the time.

With corner Vontae Davis out of the picture, the Indianapolis Colts profile as one of the least intimidating pass defenses on the slate. Everything is pointing towards Jones easily reaching value at his price, and stacking him with Luck makes a lot of sense from a game script perspective in a game the Detroit Lions will likely be trailing in.

Others to Consider

With the highest implied total in a matchup against the Lions, who had the 26th-ranked defense last year by our opponent-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, pretty much any Colt is in play this week. T.Y. Hilton is one of the most underpriced players on the slate, but he may draw a little too much Darius Slay to be a cash-game option. If Slay does end up shadowing Hilton, Donte Moncrief, who is primed for a breakout season, and 2015 first-round pick Phillip Dorsett would both be intriguing high-upside options.

For Detroit, both Matthew Stafford and Golden Tate are interesting dart throws in tournaments in a shootout against the Davis-less Colts, but both seem a tad overpriced. Theo Riddick is also an intriguing play from a game script perspective, as the pass-catching back on a team that is predicted to be trailing, although he averaged more targets and FanDuel points when the Lions were favorites last season.