Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers

Over/Under: 48.0
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 21.75
Packers Implied Team Total: 26.25

Looking for a high-upside game that won't be nearly as highly owned as the Colts-Lions game or the New Orleans Saints-Oakland Raiders game? The Jacksonville Jaguars-Green Bay Packers game has the fifth-highest over/under on the slate, and the players involved should see low ownership, making this a very intriguing game to attack in tournaments.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Price: $9,000

Similar to Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers should see low ownership as the most expensive quarterback on the slate with the minimum-priced Dak Prescott likely to be the most popular option. The game script in Week 1 sets up very nicely for a big game from Rodgers, though.

In games that Rodgers has played with Jordy Nelson while being listed as at least 4.5-point favorites since 2013, he has performed much better. Despite averaging nearly seven fewer passing attempts (29.29) in those games, Rodgers averaged 28.37 FanDuel points per game, thanks in large part to his 2.57 passing touchdowns per game.

Considering opposing teams threw the ball 37.6 times per game against Jacksonville's defense last season, the 8th-most in the NFL, it's kind of scary to imagine what Rodgers could do against their pass defense that ranked 27th in efficiency on a per-play basis last year according to our metrics.

Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Price: $7,200

As mentioned earlier, the second-most correlated position with a high-scoring quarterback is the opposing number-one wide receiver. While that makes a Rodgers-Allen Robinson pairing an interesting contrarian option, the Packers aren't likely to be highly owned anyway, so a Rodgers-Randall Cobb stack appears to be the optimal tournament play in this game.

The most highly-correlated position with a productive quarterback has proven to be the number-one receiver for that team. With Jordy Nelson potentially on a snap count, Cobb may just fill the role of number-one receiver. In games that a quarterback has scored 25 or more FanDuel points, his number one receiver has averaged 19 FanDuel points and scored at least 25 FanDuel points 27.3 percent of the time.

In 11 games with Nelson in the lineup and the Packers favored by at least 4.5 points, Cobb has averaged nearly 4 more FanDuel points per game than in all other games. In eight games with a 48-plus over/under that the Packers were favored by at least 4.5 points with Nelson since 2013, Cobb's average has jumped up to 18.81 FanDuel points per game.

The game script seems set up nearly perfectly for Rodgers and Cobb to have a big week against Jacksonville.

Others to Consider

While Allen Robinson performed worse while playing as at least a 4.5-point underdog last season, Allen Hurns actually performed better. Robinson's FanDuel average drop from 17.1 to 15.7 in games they were at least 4.5-point underdogs, but Hurns saw his average rise from 12.28 to 13.83. Combined with the fact that Robinson might be shadowed by Sam Shields, Hurns appears to be the better play from a game script perspective.

For the Packers, Jared Cook is just the 18th-most expensive tight end this week and is in a great spot for production. Eddie Lacy also presents a potential value as just the 13th-most expensive running back. In games in which the Packers have been favored by at least 4.5 points over the past three seasons, Lacy has averaged 16.3 FanDuel points, as opposed to 10.79 in all other games