Week 9 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under: 48.5
Browns Implied Team Total: 20.75
Cowboys Implied Team Total: 27.75
With three games boasting over/unders above 50 this week, this game might not jump off the page at first glance. However, the Dallas Cowboys have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, as well as the second-largest spread.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Price: $7,600
Dak Prescott is coming off of a career-high 28.3-point performance, and he has now scored three touchdowns in two consecutive games. He should have every opportunity to build off of his recent success in a plus-matchup against a hapless Cleveland Browns pass defense.
It took a matchup against Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Cleveland finally did it -- they kept an opposing quarterback from throwing multiple touchdowns against them for the first time in 10 games. In addition to this prestigious streak, Cleveland boasts the third-worst pass defense, according to Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They have also allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Prescott appears to be getting better each week and should put up big numbers if Dallas reaches their 27.75-point implied team total.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Price: $9,200
Ezekiel Elliott also draws an excellent matchup against a Cleveland run defense that ranks 29th in yards per carry allowed (4.9) and has the third-worst Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play in the league. Over the past two weeks, they have allowed the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets to rush for a combined 429 yards and 5 touchdowns.
In addition to having a terrific matchup, game script sets up quite well for Eazy E in this one. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."
That has held true for Elliott so far in his career, albeit in a small sample size. In four games that Dallas has won by at least seven (what they are favored by this week), Zeke has averaged 24 carries for 143 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. In the other three games, he has averaged just 21 carries for 77 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.
Zeke is expensive and guaranteed to be popular this week, but game script sets up so well for him that it is tough to justify fading him.
Others to Consider
Prescott wasted no time easing Dez Bryant in in his return to the field, feeding him 14 targets, which Bryant turned into 113 yards and a score. After Dez accounted for a ridiculous 35.9% target market share as well as a 42.8% red zone target market share last week, a Prescott-Bryant stack is squarely in play against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the third-most touchdowns to opposing receivers this season.
