Week 9 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under: 54.0
Packers Implied Team Total: 30.50
Colts Implied Team Total: 23.50

This matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts features a 54-point over/under, which is one of the highest we have seen this season. Green Bay's implied team total of 30.5 is one of the highest Vegas has projected this season, as well. Given that Indianapolis ranks second-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and their games have featured the seventh-most total plays per game, the 30.5-point implied team total shouldn't be overly surprising. Indy's opponents have played at the third-fastest pace in the league, too, so this should be a huge pace-up game for Green Bay, who has played at just the 18th-fastest pace this season.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Price: $9,100

Remember when Aaron Rodgers was struggling? Well, after posting 572 passing yards and a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past two weeks, you aren't hearing much of that talk anymore.

This week, the all-time leader in passer rating will take on a Colts defense that is fresh off of allowing the deadly duo of Alex Smith and Nick Foles to combine for 350 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns against them. Aside from an obviously juicy matchup, this game sets up beautifully for Rodgers from a game script perspective, too. Let's check out some of his splits in spots similar to this, courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App.

Rodgers has played in just four games with at a 54-point over/under in his career, so for a larger sample size, let's take a look at how he's performed in games with over a 50-point over/under. Since 2013, A-Rod has averaged 282 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns in such games. When you examine his splits at home with such a high over/under, things really start getting ridiculous, with an average line of 313 yards and 2.8 touchdowns, good for 26 FanDuel points per game. In home games that Green Bay has won by at least seven points (what they're favored by this week) since 2013, Rodgers has averaged 279 yards and 2.9 touchdowns.

History backs up what should be common sense -- that Rodgers should thrive in this up-tempo, high-scoring affair. The fact that he is facing Indy's sieve-like pass defense is just an added bonus.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Price: $6,100

There are several awesome pairing options to choose from on the Green Bay side of the ball, but the player who really makes this game stack work is Donte Moncrief. In his first game back, Moncrief led the Colts in snaps and targets. When healthy this season, Moncrief has looked the part of the number one receiver, playing 93.4% of the snaps and posting 10 catches on 16 targets for 105 yards and 2 scores -- as opposed to T.Y. Hilton, who has played in 89% of the snaps and posted 7 catches on 18 targets for 99 yards and zero touchdowns in those games.

Hilton has been non-committal about his status (hamstring) heading into this week, so it appears he will either be out or limited, meaning Moncrief could very well assume the role of Indy's true number one receiver in Week 9. In what should be a high-scoring matchup against Green Bay's injury-decimated secondary that just allowed Mohamed Sanu to pile up 9 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, big things could be in store for Moncrief this week.

From a game script perspective, Moncrief doesn't really have enough time spent as a big part of the offense with Andrew Luck at quarterback to draw any conclusions. It is worth noting however, that in his career, Luck has averaged 45 pass attempts in games that the Colts were listed as at least 7-point underdogs, as opposed to 37 attempts in all other games, meaning Moncrief could see incredible volume against Green Bay's patch-work secondary.

Also worth noting is Raybon's article on stacking, in which he includes each position's point averages and odds of scoring 25-plus FanDuel points when a quarterback scores 25-plus points. Unsurprisingly, the most highly-correlated player is that quarterback's number-one receiver, but perhaps not so predictably, the second-most highly correlated position (excluding opposing quarterbacks because FanDuel is a one-quarterback site) is the opposing team's number-one receiver. So, if you're paying up for Rodgers expecting a big game, pairing him with Moncrief makes a lot of sense from a correlation standpoint.

Others to Consider

Davante Adams has completely turned his career around and has piled up 25 catches on 30 targets for 206 yards and 2 scores over the past two weeks. With Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery likely returning to action this week, Adams' volume is sure to go down some. However, he has earned himself a regular role, and with Jordy Nelson dealing with Vontae Davis, Adams could post a big game against Indy's otherwise weak secondary.

Montgomery has totaled 20 catches on 25 targets for 164 receiving yards, as well as 12 carries for 66 yards over the past two games. He should be a full go this week against Indy, who ranks sixth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. With Green Bay projected to be playing with the lead, Montgomery could see a few addition carries, as well, as Green Bay's lead rusher.