Week 9 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under: 44.0
Chiefs Implied Team Total: 25.75
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 18.25
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected for the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate, despite playing without their starting quarterback and possibly their top two running backs. The 7.5-point spread in this game is also the largest on the slate, as Vegas sees the 5-2 Chiefs having no trouble with the 2-5 Jacksonville Jaguars at home. The Jaguars have also seen their opponents run the third-most plays per game against them this season, which offers yet another slight boost to Kansas City players this week.
Charcandrick West, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Price: $5,600
As noted previously, Jamaal Charles is likely done for the season and Spencer Ware has yet to practice this week, making it likely that Charcandrick West is a true workhorse this week for the Chiefs. West's career stats aren't anything to marvel at, but he has been productive when given the opportunity to handle a full workload. In four career games with 15 or more carries, West has averaged 124 yards from scrimmage and 1.3 touchdowns.
Not only is West in line for a huge workload, but he gets a terrific matchup against the Jags, who rank fifth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play this season. Jacksonville has seen the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans running backs pile up 271 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two weeks and don't appear poised to slow down West this week.
As mentioned previously, running backs for winning teams have seen a sizable increase to their fantasy production historically, so if the game script sets up as anticipated for West and the Chiefs, he should benefit from additional carries. Given that the Chiefs have won nine consecutive games at Arrowhead Stadium, it seems like a pretty safe bet that they can handle the Jags at home this week.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense
FanDuel Price: $5,100
Speaking of Kansas City's recent dominance at home, their opponents during that nine game winning streak have averaged just 14.3 points while turning the ball over 2.2 times per game. With top pass rusher Justin Houston still out of the picture, Kansas City's defense isn't the vaunted unit it once was, but Jacksonville is still projected for just 18.25 points -- the second-lowest implied team total on the slate.
If you expect Jacksonville's offensive struggles to continue, pairing Kansas City D/ST with West makes a lot of sense from a game script perspective, as Kansas City allowed him to handle 23.3 touches per game in the four game sample size mentioned previously -- all of which were wins. If their defense keeps the Jags off the field and Kansas City finds themselves playing with a lead, expect West to see a huge workload.
Others to Consider
Nick Foles comes in near minimum price and is worth a look in tournaments while filling in for Alex Smith. Foles was much more aggressive last week than we are used to seeing from a Chiefs quarterback, posting an average depth of target of 9.7 yards versus the Colts, as opposed to Smith's 7.5 mark this season, per Pro Football Focus. Given his more aggressive nature, impressive group of weapons, and high implied team total, Foles has intriguing upside at this price.
If nothing else, Foles' aggressiveness gives Kansas City's talented group of pass catchers more opportunity to shine. Last week, Travis Kelce was unleashed, collecting 101 yards and a touchdown on 7 catches, along with a season-high 10 targets. Electric rookie playmaker Tyreek Hill was also given more opportunity to showcase his ability, catching 5 of 6 targets for 98 yards, highlighted by a 34-yard touchdown thrown by Foles. That's now three touchdowns for Hill over the past four games, and he is a fun tournament dart-throw at just $4,700. Hill's game-changing special teams ability puts him in play as a double-dip pairing option with Kansas City D/ST, as he is a threat to take one to the house at any moment.
