Market Share Report: Never Trust Doug Pederson
Target Market Shares
1. The Concerns Around Brandon Marshall Grow
"He has to break out eventually. Brandon Marshall's too good. It will definitely happen."
Yeah. It's not going to happen.
We are now up to five games since the last time the New York Jets gave Marshall at least 10 targets in a game. Both Quincy Enunwa and Charone Peake have more recent 10-target games than Marshall does. Over that span, Marshall's target market share is just 24.8%, a solid step down from his mark of 28.0% prior to that. His role is decreasing in a bad offense, and there's not a lot of reason to think things will improve.
In DFS, we have to stop wasting GPP shares on Marshall, hoping we'll finally pinpoint the game he explodes. Sure, it could absolutely still happen. He's a freak. But with his usage and the Jets' lack of touchdown upside, it's not worth it to chase that possibility. For season-long, you'll be selling low, but at this point, that's likely the strategy we have to implement on a guy in Marshall's spot.
2. Stefon Is Diggsing His New Role
The headline here sucks, so feel free to bail at any time. For those of you tortured enough to keep going, we've got to lather the love on Stefon Diggs.
Diggs finished Week 10 with a career-high 15 targets, turning them into 13 receptions for 164 yards. This marked the third consecutive game that Diggs has set a career high in targets, putting him at 42 total targets over that span. That would seem a wee bit noteworthy for our purposes.
With gobs of injuries on the offensive line and a change to Pat Shurmur at offensive coordinator, the Minnesota Vikings have morphed into a quick passing game so as to not get Sam Bradford murdered. Diggs has been the obvious benefactor with a grotesque 36.3% target market share since Shurmur's promotion. Their offensive-line health is still trending in the wrong direction, meaning this offense won't be changing any time soon, and we should expect Diggs' role to remain completely bonkers.
For DFS, Diggs' appeal will be more for cash games than tournaments. The Vikings' injuries up front likely mean they'll struggle to generate scoring drives, capping his touchdown potential. But with all of the high-percentage targets he's getting, not many receivers will have a floor as juicy as his.
3. Jordy Nelson Is Back to Doing Jordy Nelson Things
Back in Week 7, Jordy Nelson got just four targets in a game against the Chicago Bears, finishing with one reception for nine yards. It seemed as if his 31-year-old legs were finally showing and that old reliable was circling the drain.
We can probably go ahead and just dispel that narrative now.
Nelson racked up 12 receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets in Week 11, capping off a three-game run that has seen him completely revive his fantasy stock. Nelson has 31 targets the past two weeks and 40 over the past three, and he has found the end zone in all three games. His target market share in that span is 29.6%, upping his season-long total to 24.6%.
That 18-target outing for Nelson came even when Randall Cobb was active and played 69% of the snaps. Davante Adams got his with nine targets, so it's not as if we should expect Nelson's situation to change any time soon. He's a locked-in target monster with upside, and we should be viewing him as such going forward.
