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Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 15

Matt Blair  —  @grizzlyblair Dec 15th, 2016
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Start Dan Carpenter as a Favorite

We've recommended Dan Carpenter several times this season and we are back onboard because the Buffalo Bills are favored by 10.5 points versus the Cleveland Browns.

numberFire's Jim Sannes wrote a very useful article in January on how kickers performed based on measures such as Vegas spreads, implied totals, and favorites versus underdogs. Based on his findings, we need to target kickers on heavily-favored teams, with implied team total as the tiebreaker.

In Week 15, Carpenter is the cheapest kicker favored by 10 or more points.

Buffalo has the seventh-highest implied total of the weekend slate at 25.5 points. All six Buffalo home games have gone over the total this season. According to Sannes, kickers on teams favored by 10 or more points scored an average of 9.77 points per game between 2012-2014.

Carpenter has the upside of a top-five kicker and is priced at $4,700, just $200 above the FanDuel minimum, making him a nice option for those who want to spend up at other positions.

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