5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
Chicago Bears Rushing Offense
Jordan Howard has never scorned us, making him an odd-ball for this theme. He's just really freaking good.
Over the past five games, Howard has 40.13% of the team's opportunities (touches plus targets), the fourth-highest mark in the entire league. The only guys ahead of him are Le'Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, and David Johnson. That's it. This dude's legit.
Over the Bears' past seven games, Howard has never had fewer than 99 yards from scrimmage, and he's averaging 19.7 carries for 101 yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game while adding 23 yards per game through the air. His usage has given him a tremendous floor that his $7,200 price tag on FanDuel doesn't encapsulate. That's before we discuss the ceiling in this matchup.
As we established before, Howard and the Bears are facing Washington, a team that has struggled a decent amount against the rush this year. They're 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, which is largely unsatisfactory. They look a whole lot stankier when we focus on their rush defense on the road.
Below is a little blind resume comparison between two similar assets. For reference, the league average Rushing NEP per carry for high-volume backs is -0.01, and the league-average Success Rate is 40.32%. These two are both just a wee bit beyond those marks.
| Carries | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 154 | 15.88 | 0.10 | 48.05% |
| Player B | 309 | 31.68 | 0.10 | 47.25% |
Player A is running backs who have faced Washington while at home this year. Player B is the aforementioned Ezekiel Elliott. Combining Elliott's efficiency with Howard' volume? Simply delectable.
The only concern that exists in this game is the spread. Washington is favored by three, and even with a guy like Howard, we don't like to dabble in those waters too often. Can we trust a running back with a decent price as an underdog?
With Howard, the answer is likely yes. Of that seven-game stretch we were gushing over before, the Bears won just two, and they lost one game by 26 points. In that one, Howard still had 15 carries for 100 yards. He seems good enough to not be bothered by the game script, only providing one additional reason to get him in your life on Saturday.
