5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16

Washington Passing Offense

Kirk Cousins and Washington weren't on the main slate last week. This is proof that the fantasy gods do not want you to lose all of your money.

Cousins had a matchup against a Carolina Panthers pass defense that has struggled for most of the season, but they held him to just 10.7 points on FanDuel despite 47 pass attempts. He had one interception and no touchdowns, and that's not a recipe conducive to fantasy success.

Once again, though, we can't let one game disuade us from a guy we would have loved were it not for that one instance.

Cousins and Washington are on the road this week for a duel with the Chicago Bears. The Bears rank 19th against the pass, which isn't terrible, but it does still present a mismatch for Cousins and company. He individually ranks third in both Passing NEP per drop back and Success Rate, illustrating just how good Cousins has been this season. You'll take that against any defense that isn't among the league's best.

The Bears have developed a bit of a reputation for having a much better defense at home than on the road, and this is something they've earned with their play. They've allowed 19 points per game at home compared to 26.71 per game on the road, and this shines through in the efficiency splits of opposing quarterbacks, as well.

This would likely lead us to shy away from Cousins with the Bears at home. However, this split may not be as definitive as it appears at first.

Of the seven quarterbacks the Bears have faced on the road, four have ranked in the top 12 of per-drop back efficiency, and only one has been a true clunker (sorry, Brock Osweiler). At home, they've faced three quarterbacks in the top 12 of passing efficiency, but they've also had heavy exposure to Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, Colin Kaepernick, and Blaine Gabbert, all of whom rank 26th or worse in Passing NEP per drop back. This says that part of the Bears' home/road splits could stem from facing bad quarterbacks at home, and Cousins doesn't fit that criterion.

The Bears haven't allowed too many high-upside games this year to opposing quarterbacks, but a lot of that stems from touchdown variance. They've allowed multiple touchdowns in just six of 14 games, meaning they'll appear to be a tough defense against quarterbacks. But at the same time, they've allowed three different 300-yard days, and Cousins has hit that mark on seven different occasions this year. If the touchdowns break his way, we could see Cousins get back to the ceiling potential he flashed earlier in the season.

As far as stacking goes, it's hard to ignore the safety of Pierre Garcon. He has at least six targets in every game except for three this year, and he has topped 50 receiving yards in six of the past seven games. His target market share since their Week 9 bye is 21.67%, a respectable mark for his $5,500 price tag.

There is also merit to DeSean Jackson given the Bears' past. They allowed 171 yards to T.Y. Hilton and 107 yards to Will Fuller, both of whom have deep-ball abilities akin to Jackson's. He's far riskier than Garcon with heavier variance in his targets, but his upside here can at least turn some heads.