5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Passing Offense

Hello, darkness, my old friend. We've come to talk Week 14 again.

In that game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had everything you could have wanted in a matchup for DFS. Jameis Winston was absolutely cooking from an efficiency standpoint, and the New Orleans Saints were flailing in their attempts to stop opposing passing offenses. It was a situation begging for fantasy glory.

Then Winston went out and dropped 8.96 FanDuel points, his worst outing since Week 2. Ya burnt, bankroll.

Given that this game was just two weeks ago, and Winston struggled in his only outing after that, we shouldn't want to use the Bucs again in Week 16. And yet, here we are, cursing process for leading us back to this forsaken land. We'd be wise to listen to what that process is saying here.

There are several factors that separate this matchup from the disappointment in Week 14. The first is that this game is in New Orleans. We know that scoring is traditionally higher in domes, and the meeting two weeks ago was in Tampa Bay.

Second, the Saints are favored in this game, which could be the key difference. Last time, the Buccaneers got out to an early lead and ran the ball 35 times to murk the clock. Winston recorded just 28 drop backs in that game. Vegas doesn't see this game going that way with the Saints as three-point favorites, so we should expect to see a few more plays in this one.

Third, the Saints are better equipped to shoot this puppy out than they were in Week 14. They played that game without stud center Max Unger and wide receiver Michael Thomas, a pair of losses that can easily knee-cap even the best offense. Those two came back last week as the Saints hung 48 points on the opposing Arizona Cardinals.

Everything about this game says that we shouldn't expect a repeat of Week 14, but the bad taste of that dud is still fresh in the minds of many. That should help suppress ownership on the Buccaneers even if they won't be the sneakiest option on the slate.

Winston still sits 12th in Passing NEP per drop back of the 38 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, helping to justify his lofty price tag of $8,000 on FanDuel. The Saints have certainly improved against the rush of late, but they're still down in 29th against the pass, so don't overlook Winston in your search for a quarterback this week.

As for stacking with Winston, the best option may now be tight end Cameron Brate. Brate's biggest detriment in the past had been a reduced snap rate, but over the past two weeks, he has played 85% of the team's snaps. This gives us more confidence in his 24.72% target market share over the past three games and should allow us to plug him in alongside Winston.

This isn't to completely exclude Mike Evans with his recent disappointments. He hasn't exceeded eight targets in his past three games, but he still has a market share equal to Brate's over that time. It's hard to stomach any reduced role when he's the most expensive wide receiver on the main slate, but given the likely increased passing volume for Tampa Bay and Evans' talent, it may be worth a roll of the dice.