Week 17 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Over/Under: 56.0
Falcons Implied Team Total: 31.25
Saints Implied Team Total: 24.75

Vegas expects the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints to close out the season with some fireworks, projecting it for the highest over/under we've seen this season.

Atlanta's implied team total sits at 31.25 points, which is the highest on the slate by over four points. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in total plays per game, with New Orleans ranking second, so this game should move at a fast pace.

Let's examine the best way to get exposure to this high-scoring affair.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Price: $8,700

No quarterback has a higher Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back this season than Matt Ryan, who has an 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past three games. He'll look to continue rolling against the Saints, who rank fifth-worst in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back.

In addition to having an excellent matchup, game script is also on Ryan's side. He's only played in one game with a 56-point over/under in his career, so instead let's examine games he has played in with a 50-point over/under.

Since the beginning of 2013, Ryan has averaged 318 passing yards and 2 touchdowns in such games, as opposed to 279 yards and 1.6 touchdowns in all other games, according to the RotoViz Game Splits App. During that span, Ryan has performed notably better in games Atlanta has won by at least 7 points (what they're favored by this week), averaging 306 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns, as opposed to 287 yards and 1.6 touchdowns in all others.

Ryan has everything you look for in a quarterback this week. He's playing well, has a favorable matchup and game script, and is one of the few elite quarterbacks with something to play for, as Atlanta needs a win to maintain their hold over the 2 seed in the NFC.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Price: $8,000

Devonta Freeman handled 21 touches in Week 16, highlighted by a team-leading 8 catches on 8 targets. Excluding a game in which he saw limited snaps due to an extreme blowout of the Los Angeles Rams, Freeman has averaged 20 touches over his past four games. He has turned those touches into 106 scrimmage yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and 22.6 FanDuel points per game.

Among backs with 200-plus carries, Freeman ranks fourth in Rushing NEP per play and first in Rushing Success Rate. He should continue this against a Saints defense that has allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing backs.

Game script would suggest big things may be in store for Freeman, too. In games Atlanta has won by 7 or more points in his time as a starter, Freeman has averaged 17.1 carries for 84 yards and 1.2 touchdowns, as opposed to 15.2 carries for 58 yards and 0.4 touchdowns in all other games.

Those numbers make a lot of sense when you consider what Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, where "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Price: $6,700

Michael Thomas saw eight targets in Week 16, which marks three out of his past four games with at least that number. He leads the Saints in targets, catches, and touchdowns per game on the year, and also leads the team in yards and FanDuel points per game from Week 3 on.

Despite this, he continues to be extremely underpriced on FanDuel, where he is the only receiver under $7,000 to average over 13 FanDuel points per game this season.

He will face off against a Desmond Trufant-less Falcons secondary that ranks 10th-worst in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back. In his last matchup against Atlanta, Thomas caught 7 of 11 targets for 71 yards and 1 touchdown. Thomas is in an excellent spot for production and stacking him with Atlanta offensive players makes a lot of sense from a game script perspective.