Week 17 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Over/Under: 49.0
Lions Implied Team Total: 22.75
Packers Implied Team Total: 26.25

The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are set to face off in one of the few games on the slate that is meaningful for both teams. The loser could find themselves out of the playoffs, so you shouldn't have to worry about any players resting.

Both Green Bay (sixth) and Detroit (ninth) rank in the top-10 in schedule-adjusted Offensive NEP per play, while ranking 21st and 31st in schedule-adjusted Defensive NEP per play, respectively. So, it should come as no surprise that this game has the second-highest over/under on the slate.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Price: $8,800

Aaron Rodgers is coming off of a 37.2-point performance on FanDuel and has now recorded 15 straight touchdowns without an interception. He gets to face a Detroit defense ranked second-to-last in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back that he threw four touchdowns against in their previous meeting.

Since 2013, Rodgers has performed marginally better in games with at least a 49-point over/under, averaging 284 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns in such games, as opposed to 250 yards and 2.1 touchdowns in other games. His numbers have really spiked in games with a 49-point over/under in which the Packers have won by at least 4 points, which he has averaged 308 yards and 3.1 touchdowns in.

Given his recent performance, favorable matchup, and history in similar game scripts, Rodgers is worth a look in all formats against Detroit in Week 17.

Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Price: $8,200

No receiver has been hotter than Jordy Nelson, who leads the league with 20.4 FanDuel points per game over his past five. His 30.9% target market share over that span is higher than everyone other than Odell Beckham.

He's been especially involved in the red zone, averaging a 34.8% target market share in the red zone over his past five games, which is up from his 29.9% mark for the season. On the year, no player has seen more red zone targets than Nelson, whose 28 targets are 7 more than the next-highest receiver.

He will lead the charge for Green Bay's passing attack against Detroit's weak secondary, which he dropped 101 yards and 2 touchdowns on earlier this season. Similar to Rodgers, Nelson has performed much better in games with a 49-point over/under in which the Packers have won by at least four points since the beginning of 2013.

In said games, Nelson has averaged 106 receiving yards and 1.2 touchdowns, as opposed to 81 yards and 0.6 touchdowns in all others.

Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions

FanDuel Price: $5,800

Eric Ebron came alive in Detroit's most recent game, catching 8 of 12 targets for 93 yards. He has a great opportunity to build on that against the Packers, who have a bottom-10 defense against opposing tight ends.

Ebron has actually performed better in negative game scripts over the past two seasons, averaging 4.6 catches on 6.7 targets for 53 yards and 0.4 touchdowns in games the Lions have lost by four or more points. In all other games, Ebron has averaged just 3.5 catches on 5 targets for 40 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.

If you expect this to turn into a shootout in which the Lions are playing from behind, pairing Ebron with Rodgers and/or Nelson makes a lot of sense from a game script perspective.