Fantasy Football: 4 Mid-Round Running Backs With Workhorse Potential
Paul Perkins, New York Giants
ADP: 6.03 (RB28)
Nothing about Paul Perkins' athletic profile or his rookie-year performance -- more on that in a bit -- makes him all that attractive, but he compensates for it with his opportunity.
Perkins is heading into the season atop the depth chart, and the New York Giants' coaching staff has even used the oh so heavenly phrase "three-down back" when talking about him this offseason (probably coach-speak, I know). The truth is the G-Men don't have many other options.
Shane Vereen, Wayne Gallman, Orleans Darkwa and Shaun Draughn round out the depth chart. Vereen is a solid pass-game weapon, but he's rushed for more than 260 yards in a season just once in six years. Gallman is a rookie with dumpy combine numbers. Draughn is entering his age-30 campaign and has proven himself to be just a guy while Darkwa is an undrafted player who hasn't done anything noteworthy in his three seasons, although Darkwa has a stranglehold on the lead job if we're going by the freshest name.
It sure seems like the starting role -- at least the early-down gig, assuming Vereen does his thing in passing situations -- is Perkins' to lose going by logic and just about every offseason report thus far.
That in and of itself makes Perkins a guy to target in the middle rounds, but remember when I said we'd get back to Perkins' rookie season? Let's do that.
The former UCLA standout finished his first year with a pedestrian 112 carries for 456 yards (4.1 yards per attempt). He was pretty meh by our metrics, too, putting up -0.02 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry with a 40.18% Success Rate (the percentage of plays which resulted in a positive NEP gain). Last season, the league averages in those stats for running backs were -0.02 Rushing NEP per carry and a 40.28% Success Rate -- so, yeah, he was about as average as you can be.
When you compare his numbers to the production of his teammates, something our Brandon Gdula did earlier this offseason, things start to look better.
| 2016 Giants RBs | Rushes | Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 181 | -22.21 | -0.12 | 32.60% |
| Paul Perkins | 112 | -1.71 | -0.02 | 40.18% |
| Shane Vereen | 33 | -0.45 | -0.01 | 39.39% |
| Orleans Darkwa | 30 | -0.53 | -0.02 | 33.33% |
| Bobby Rainey | 17 | -2.93 | -0.17 | 35.29% |
It's a real motley crew here, but Perkins stands out as the best of the bunch. He leads the way in Success Rate while his Rushing NEP per play looks pristine when juxtaposed to the shoddy mark of Jennings, who was released this spring and was the only other back to see significant work in 2016.
This offseason, the Giants reportedly chased after LeGarrette Blount, even if their level interest may have been overblown, and they were linked with Adrian Peterson, making it seem like the team didn't feel so good about Perkins. It's similar to the way the Miami Dolphins pursued C.J. Anderson and Arian Foster last year, seemingly trying like heck not to give the job to Jay Ajayi and scaring us fake footballers away from one of 2016's breakout running backs.
I'm not saying Perkins will blow up the way Ajayi did, but I think it's time we quit looking for reasons to pass on the Giants' lead dog (until we see or hear otherwise) while being grateful we can get a starting running back in the sixth round.
