Fantasy Football: 4 Mid-Round Running Backs With Workhorse Potential
Samaje Perine, Washington
ADP: 7.06 (RB34)
Rookies are unpredictable in fantasy for all the obvious reasons, but when a running back going in the seventh round has a shot to see meaningful carries, we have to take notice.
Samaje Perine had an absurdly successful college career against top-flight competition. His numbers did drop in each of his three seasons at Oklahoma, but some of that is because he shared the backfield with Joe Mixon -- one of the premier talents in this rookie class -- in 2015 and 2016.
| Season | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns | Yards Per Carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 263 | 1,713 | 21 | 6.5 |
| 2015 | 226 | 1,349 | 16 | 6.0 |
| 2016 | 196 | 1,060 | 12 | 5.4 |
Those numbers are pretty darn good, and they helped Perine get selected in the fourth round (114th overall) by Washington despite some pretty poor measurables, although the top comparable of Jordan Howard looks nice.
Even if you think Perine isn't that good, the landing spot in Washington makes up for a lot of that.
Rob Kelley, an undrafted rookie last season, gave the team's running game a lift, and he ended up as the overall RB26 in standard leagues, finishing with 704 yards and 6 touchdowns. All things considered, he had himself a pretty nice season, but let's not get it twisted -- Kelley isn't very good.
Among the 43 backs with at least 80 carries in 2016, Kelley checked in 26th in Rushing NEP per attempt with a clip of -0.02. He also posted a Success Rate of 37.50%, the 29th-best mark among the 80-plus-carry running backs. Just to refresh: the league average Rushing NEP per carry for running backs was -0.02 while the league-average success rate was 40.28%.
Kelly wasn't good, but he rode volume to fantasy relevance.
At a minimum, if Perine can swipe the early-down role from Kelley, he can do the same type of thing. It'll be a camp battle to watch this preseason, and Perine is already making a good impression. If he secures the lead gig -- with Chris Thompson likely handling passing-game duties -- Perine could return a ton of value at his current price.
